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The only remotely rational reason to even consider invading or attacking Iran, is if current US plans call for the whole middle east to be dominated by Israel with the US pulling its strings. Otherwise there is absolutely no point to such an exercise. The possibility - and that is all it is - that Iran may have nuclear weapons in another 5-10 years is scaremongering exactly as Iraq's WMD's were. For heaven's sake, North Korea already has nuclear weapons and we are offering them all kinds of sweet deals. Pakistan ditto. Israel for that matter, has weapons capable of reaching far beyond its Arab neighbors.
And if that is a policy which the present adminstration, with its grossly distorted view of world realities, thinks is a productive one, then it may have such plans. If so, we could well see them in action during the next 4-8 weeks.
But it will be like stirring up a hornet's nest. We will not merely be taking on a country which will be far more difficult to subdue even than Iraq is proving to be. The - until now - relatively quiet Shias in Iraq would be likely to rise up and make our problems there many times worse. Hezbollah in Lebanon could make last summer's events there seem like a picnic.
And the chances are we shall be dealing with all this entirely by ourselves. There was little enough taste abroad for the invasion of Iraq. There is almost none for Iran to be attacked. Meanwhile at home GW is fast becoming a liability to his own party and that must restrict his freedom to embark on anything likely to make matters worse.
More likely, if Iran is attacked at all, it will be by Israel. Even that could have serious consequences for our troops in Iraq.
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