Honestly, it's a mix of those options. It's really scary to put your business and livelihood on the line trying out a "new" host .. even if your current host has given you problems. The "good" news, I guess, is that a lot of people here don't have "real" businesses that require constant uptime and can take a "chance" on someone new.
I've had some downtime with my host recently that cost me a nice contract, and I can't seem to get an answer to my ICQ, but I still wouldn't go with a "new" service ... not for the mission-critical stuff anyway .. I'm looking at "established" places right now if I need to make a switch (i.e., if I don't hear from them).
Also remember that everyone was new once, hehe.
Hope some of that helps! And good luck.
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