GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - View Single Post - Do you think we are heading into a depression?

kane · 12-27-2008, 04:36 PM

I don't think we will go into a depression. I don't think Obama is magician and will automatically fix things, but he is a different voice and seems to be surrounding himself with good people and will steer us off the course we have been on in the last 8 years. That hope will help renew confidence which is one of the major problems we have. We are a consumer driven economy and people are scared so they are not spending money. If he can help renew that confidence spending will start up again and things can take an upturn.

I think Jan and Feb will be ugly, but then we will start to turn in a positive direction. It won't happen overnight, but things will get better.

Here are a few thoughts of what we, as a nation, should invest in/do to help solidify our future.
(in no specific order of importance)

1. Renewable energy. Until we solve our addiction to fossil fuels we will go nowhere fast. Gas and oil are yesterdays commodity, we need to look forward. Renewable energy will provide jobs at home and keep us from flooding countries that hate us with money.

2. A sea change in the housing market. Houses were/are too expensive for most people to own. The average household (household being 2 adults and 2 kids) income in this country is 44K. The average nationwide price of a house is around 188K. That means that house will cost someone that can put about 20K around 1200 a month not counting taxes which could easily be another 200-600 or more per month. At that rate your home will cost the average person about half of their take home pay. This problem often leads to these people getting debt because they can't afford other things so they finance it. The housing market will have to adjust itself accordingly or the average income will have to adjust, but until these two get in check with each other housing and debt will always be an issue.

3. Wise spending. We need to get it into our heads that just because we are Americans we are not entitled to anything we want. So many people feel like they "deserve" a nice big house and a couple of nice cars and a couple of exclusive vacations a year. So they go out and get it. But, of course, they can't afford it so they finance it and eventually something happens and they end up either losing it or in bankruptcy because their pursuit of what they feel they are entitled to finally overwhelms them financially. People need to learn to live within their means, budget and say no to themselves and their kids from time to time.

4. We have to start building stuff that we sell to other countries. We can't just import and import and buy. When you look at countries that are 3rd world shitholes what do they all seem to have in common? A corrupt government, a lack of exports and most people making money simply by selling each other stuff. No new money enters the system, they just pass the same money around over and over again. We are heading down this path. Sure we have wealth and becoming a third world shithole is not likely in our lifetime, but we need to start producing things and stop sending out money out of country.

Anyway, just a few thoughts. My main reason for thinking that we won't go into a depression is that a lot has changed in the nearly 80 years since the last depression and the financial world is so much more complex that we have many more options than we had before. Also so many other countries rely on us now that they have a financial interest in us not failing so they are going to be more willing to work with us and help us. This is a global mess, so we are not facing it alone.

just my 2 cents'

sorry for the long post.

12-27-2008, 04:36 PM
kane Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: portland, OR Posts: 20,684	I don't think we will go into a depression. I don't think Obama is magician and will automatically fix things, but he is a different voice and seems to be surrounding himself with good people and will steer us off the course we have been on in the last 8 years. That hope will help renew confidence which is one of the major problems we have. We are a consumer driven economy and people are scared so they are not spending money. If he can help renew that confidence spending will start up again and things can take an upturn. I think Jan and Feb will be ugly, but then we will start to turn in a positive direction. It won't happen overnight, but things will get better. Here are a few thoughts of what we, as a nation, should invest in/do to help solidify our future. (in no specific order of importance) 1. Renewable energy. Until we solve our addiction to fossil fuels we will go nowhere fast. Gas and oil are yesterdays commodity, we need to look forward. Renewable energy will provide jobs at home and keep us from flooding countries that hate us with money. 2. A sea change in the housing market. Houses were/are too expensive for most people to own. The average household (household being 2 adults and 2 kids) income in this country is 44K. The average nationwide price of a house is around 188K. That means that house will cost someone that can put about 20K around 1200 a month not counting taxes which could easily be another 200-600 or more per month. At that rate your home will cost the average person about half of their take home pay. This problem often leads to these people getting debt because they can't afford other things so they finance it. The housing market will have to adjust itself accordingly or the average income will have to adjust, but until these two get in check with each other housing and debt will always be an issue. 3. Wise spending. We need to get it into our heads that just because we are Americans we are not entitled to anything we want. So many people feel like they "deserve" a nice big house and a couple of nice cars and a couple of exclusive vacations a year. So they go out and get it. But, of course, they can't afford it so they finance it and eventually something happens and they end up either losing it or in bankruptcy because their pursuit of what they feel they are entitled to finally overwhelms them financially. People need to learn to live within their means, budget and say no to themselves and their kids from time to time. 4. We have to start building stuff that we sell to other countries. We can't just import and import and buy. When you look at countries that are 3rd world shitholes what do they all seem to have in common? A corrupt government, a lack of exports and most people making money simply by selling each other stuff. No new money enters the system, they just pass the same money around over and over again. We are heading down this path. Sure we have wealth and becoming a third world shithole is not likely in our lifetime, but we need to start producing things and stop sending out money out of country. Anyway, just a few thoughts. My main reason for thinking that we won't go into a depression is that a lot has changed in the nearly 80 years since the last depression and the financial world is so much more complex that we have many more options than we had before. Also so many other countries rely on us now that they have a financial interest in us not failing so they are going to be more willing to work with us and help us. This is a global mess, so we are not facing it alone. just my 2 cents' sorry for the long post.