In my eyes the massive election defeats of the last two years has caused the republican party to splinter into four different groups.
group 1 - I call them the social fascist. These are the ones led by Palin and Huckabee and who have decided that the only way the party will get back in power is to shift far back to the right on social issues. They want to ramp up the culture war and work hard to convince the conservative Christians that the liberals will take away their guns then once they are unarmed they will impregnate their underage daughters only to force them to get abortions and marry another girl.
group 2- These are the big business republicans. They are led by guys like Romney and Giuliani. They want to calm down on the social issues and focus more on the financial side of things. They want to build the party around balancing the budget, spending money wisely and cutting taxes.
group 3 - This is the "we are against it" group. This is the group that Limbaugh leads. They don't really have much of an agenda, but if the democrats are for it, they are against it.
group 4 - The "new" conservatives. These are the ones who now don't want to be known as republicans, but still consider themselves conservative. They say they are looking to someone like Ron Paul as a leader, but also claim they are more independent. Mostly it seems these are the people who don't like the democrats, but are annoyed by the republicans as well.
Basically the republicans are in the same place as the democrats were about 20 years ago when they were having trouble winning elections and they had no real agenda. The democrats plan turned out to be basically one where they did very little and just let the republicans screw up then swooped in and said, "They suck, see how bad they did, pick us." I guess only time will tell if the republicans will do the same.
The time is right for a third party. There are enough independents and scorned republicans out there that could be attracted to a legit third party contender. I don't know how far that party could go as far as winning seats in the house and senate or challenging the white house, but it could create a strong beginning. Somehow, though, I doubt that is going to happen. As much as people say they want change, they really don't.
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