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My take on it based on one or two stories I've seen:
1) The picture is of him.
2) He didn't send it.
A Twitter account that is linked to the people involved made a tweet a few weeks ago saying that Weiner is going to be in a twitter photo scandal soon. Seems odd that someone would Tweet that.
I'm assuming some right wing bloggers with ties to Andrew Brietbart hacked his account, found the photos, then picked one of his followers to send the photo to. Then of course, Andrew Brietbart breaks the story.
But hey, what do I know.
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