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Where Obama has the advantage is in the battleground states. If he wins all the states that democrats have won in the last 4 elections plus New Mexico which is polling strongly for him he almost has enough EV's to win. If he then wins Florida it is over. If he doesn't win Florida he basically only has to win 2 or 3 of the remaining battleground states (the number depends on which states he wins) and he wins. Romney pretty much has to win all the battleground state or pull of some major upset and steal a state that everyone assumed would go democrat. That is not going to be easy to do and it is why he is a 2-1 underdog still.
I won't be shocked if we see an election where one guy wins the popular vote and the other wins the electoral college.
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