Originally Posted by mynameisjim

Has anyone mentioned how the vote usually breaks for the incumbent on election day among undecided.

Look at the Bush/Kerry election. It was very close going in and Kerry actually had a slight lead. But as the votes came in, things broke for the incumbent about 1 or 2 %.

Don't incumbents usually get booted out? They rarely get forced out on razor close elections. That's because on close elections, the undecided usually end up breaking for the incumbent.

Based on that, plus the electoral problem Romney has. Obama has good chance of winning.