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when nothing else changes and your chargebacks skyrocket, look first to your affiliates.
do you have any new affiliates doing a larger volume of sales?
do you have long time affiliates who's sales have all of the sudden increased?
check those guys out and see if you have specific webmasters with really high chargebacks. In the last few years we've had some webmasters who promoted PimpRoll for several years with no issues turn to fraud, guys who's sales had declined over time, I am sure it is tough to watch your sales go down and a few guys are bound to try some shady things to get back to where they used to be.
(not knocking webmasters here, but over time as you get more and more, you are bound to get a few bad apples).
also, you use third party billers, do you let any other companies cross sell your sites from theirs? Because even if your site is better than theirs, if they get more aggressive on their sales tactics and pricing, it will result in more CB's to your site. When customers are pissed, they are likely to CB both sales, not just the initial, or not just the Xsale. (I see you have no cross sales on your sites, so this is likely not it, but definitely something that causes problems at third party billers).
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