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He seems to loose no matter what.
Trump might be the front runner for the Republican party, but not 100% of the Republican party is behind him. This might be the case for either side in any election; Some people will just say "I do not accept my party's candidate" and either vote the other way or just not vote. Usually this is not enough people to influence an election, but in the case of Trump this will most likely have a huge influence on the election. Republicans will either stay home and not vote, or (gasp!) vote Democratic or otherwise. Trump will loose.
If he runs as an Independent, not enough of the Republican party will leave the Republican party and vote for him. Again, Trump looses.
ALL of the polls - including Fox News - has Trump as loosing by a large margin. This is a very odd election - Current polls show Trump loosing to Clinton or Sanders, and also shows Cruz as loosing to Clinton or Sanders. Something big would have to change to change those numbers.
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“The choice is no longer between right or left. The choice is between normal and crazy.”
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders
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