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Originally Posted by onwebcam
It is fact that the Republican turnout in the primaries was a record turnout and the Democrats had a low turnout. In fact it was damn near an even turnout nationwide despite there there bring a lot more registered dems. With that being said the pollsters aren't factoring that in. Even if they were they would still be oversampling. Clinton is behind in the polls now.. No doubt. And this is based on polls before Friday.
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I don't think it matters. Primaries, rallies, you are really talking about a very passionate subset and subgroup of the population. The elections are won based upon the independents and middle voters, and the general population. People like me, who really don't give a shit and hate both candidates.
Look, Polls for the most part are accurate. Are they all accurate? Nope. But are they all wrong simultaneously? Probably not. Let's take the most extreme recent case of Brexit. 2-3 weeks before Brexit was clearly ahead in the polls, but then the week before the polls began to change, and clearly illustrated clear momentum of Brexit passing. The catalysts were in place in that last week, and the change and momentum was reflected in the polls. When that election happened, it really was a true toss up on election day. Some of the polls had begin to change and capture the momentum of the pro-Brexit vote.
If you look at all the polls today, he is behind, by a lot. And if Trump was up in the polls, we would all know about because he would be telling us how shitty Hillary is doing in the polls, just like he did to all the other Republicans during primary season (And those polls ended up predicting the results correct - didn't they?). If you believe every poll and polls in general are wrong, then you have the great financial opportunity in front of you. You can place a bet on the election and get fantastic odds, because those odds are built off of the polls which you don't trust.
If you want to know where I stand on my personal opinion, I stopped caring when Jeb Bush bowed out. He should have been the candidate, and he would have won, and I would have voted for him. I would have take him or Kasich.
Hillary is going to win, and my taxes are going to go higher. And I've accepted that.