He can win, but it will be an uphill battle for him.
This time he won't be running against a candidate who his hated by half their own party, generally disliked by the public, and actively under federal investigation.
He has done nothing to expand his voter base and has played only to his existing base which means he will need all of those people to support him and he will need young voters and apathetic Democrats who stayed home or voted 3rd party in 2016 to do the same.
I think no matter the Democrat ends up being it will be a close race and either of them can win.
Of course, we are still nearly 1.5 years from the election and a lot can happen between now and then.
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