Quote:
Originally Posted by Pryda
I have a feeling this post isn't going to age well. Don't overestimate the US.
And the death rate in the US at the moment is already higher than that of Iran and China.
China: 3.8%
Iran: 3%
US: 3.9%
Perhaps US' death rate percentage will drop as the other numbers go up. We'll see.
Source: https://covid19info.live/ |
Mortality rate is being represented as a function of confirmed cases vs deaths. You have to keep in mind that there are probably 10x more unconfirmed cases then confirmed. If someone gets it and has mild symptoms, which is 80% of the people apparently (realistically, again - probably FAR more), they weather it out at home and don't even go to a doctor (especially in the US where they might not have insurance or something). If someone weathers it out at home and gets far worse, they go to a hospital (adding 1 to confirmed at that stage) or they die at home and get tested post-mortem (adding 1 to confirmed and 1 to death). If there's an outbreak at a retirement community or a hospice or something, that will also skew the death numbers higher.
https://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus
"1.6% of confirmed cases (
confirmed cases representing between 5-10% of all infections in the community) will die"
This suggests a death rate of 0,08% to 0,16%, and this will mostly be the sick or elderly. Almost all the deaths in Italy are over 60.
This isn't to say that hospitals will not be overwhelmed, and we can probably expect to start seeing triage at some point because it does not make sense to use a valuable respirator (valuable in the limited supply sense) on a 90 year old with a heart condition instead of a pregnant woman, or a 16 year old.
The unconfirmed count is WAAAAY higher. 2 people brought it into Poland from Germany. What are the fucking odds, that two people would happen to be in contact with one of the 700 people in germany that have it (out of the 80 million that live there) and happen to bring it back into Poland on a plane and on a bus? Either we won the fucking coronavirus lottery, or the number of ACTUAL infected people in Germany is missing two zeros at the end.