eric_wahlberg

Hello Everyone,

I am reading regularly in newspaper about automation and artificial intellegence taking jobs in manufacturing even in IT World too.

What do you think?

Will Jobs we are doing completely vanish after 10 to 15 years spa of time.

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ContentPimp

With how vastly things are evolving now, you know what?
I think it won't be impossible if by that period of time, most people would be jobless.

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Theo

It will certainly take longer, but over the next decade we'll see jobs like uber/taxi driver, warehouse worker, security worker becoming extinct.

kane

I think we will see some decline in the next 10-15 years, but I think we are likely about 20-30 away from seeing serious automation that starts replacing large numbers of workers.

pimpmaster9000

artificial intelligence as a service will be huge in the next 10 years....heres a list of ex-professions:

stock broker - wall street is mostly AI today...
doctor - AI is already diagnosing many diseases better than most doctors
pharmacists - humans used to do this
architect - AI is already heavily involved
lawyers - AI will be much more efficient...but lawyers make the laws and will protect themselves they will probably go last
office workers - most office jobs can be done by AI for pennies...its just a matter of programming
webdesigner - websitebuilder software coupled with AI
programmers - "siri, make me a script to..." remember webdesigners?
realtors - why do you need a person to work this job at all?
accountants - turbotax with AI



robots will replace:


-all drivers
-all guards
-all shop workers
-all tellers
-all receptionists
-all construction workers (3d printing houses is reality today)
-all simple work period...



then theres the small business killers like amazon and wallmart...

-all small shops will close (we are seeing this today)
-all affiliates of any kind will be cut out of the money loop (we are seeing this today)
-most shopping will be done online, same day drone delivery will replace going out to shop



there is no coming back from this one...the end is neigh...

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Joshua G

AI will never replace the imaginative hacker. or the artist.

Barry-xlovecam

Job loss is overestimated -- robots cannot replace all workers.

Computers still need human supplied input or human supervision of the data being input. The typing pool at large business from the 1920-1960 era has ceased to exist but there are new types of office jobs. Copy machines are becoming more of a rarity as we can digitally transmit PDF and text data now -- paper optional. Ink and paper manufacturing has to adjust to less and different demands.

How many print shops are in your area today? Few. The printing industry had to downscale. Look at the manufacturers of computer and network equipment -- the was no Intel or Cisco 40 years ago.

Jobs change.

If we don't need coal mines because we have cleaner energy and heating with natural gas and solar power -- why do we need to keep a failing industry?

Construction, both residential and commercial will become more mechanized but we will still need tradesman for both new construction and repairs.

With the new e-commerce we do not need the same number of sales clerks on a retail floor. However, there are new jobs writing sales copy text for product pages and new jobs in web design, programming and server administration that did not exist 40 years ago.

We will still need mechanics and skilled tradesmen to build, maintain and repair the machines.

We will need less and less unskilled labor. We (1st World) will import less finished goods from the developing world for reason that our machines will bring production home with lower labor costs than humans. With machines for robotic electronics assembly; one day your PC, laptop, tablet and smartphone may be assembled in the US.

Maybe, creative jobs in the arts, philosophy and pure sciences will pay better. Theoretically, we should have more time for leisure.

Look Chang

Fortunately, the oldest profession in the world will survive

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pimpmaster9000

95% of the world population is not capable of doing what you mentioned above..."we will all be webdesigners selling each other webdesign" is not sustainable at all...you need a strong economy to prosper...for a strong economy you can not have most people out of work...it does not work that way...

the sahara desert was once a lush forest...then a few plants died out...then the temperature rose by 1% because the sun was heating the ground more...this in turn caused more plants to die...this in turn caused a further increase in temperature...eventually everything died out

most homo sapiens are low skilled workers or they do not work at all...robots and AI are not coming, they are already here...connect the dots...

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CurrentlySober

According to medical information, Steve Jobs will take around 10 to 15 years to become a skeleton, but the skeleton remains and will not vanish completely

http://www.memorialpages.co.uk/artic...omposition.php

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CaptainHowdy

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Spunky

There will always be a need for tradesmen/women

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CaptainHowdy

I can't wait btw ...

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blackmonsters

Artificial intelligence....No.
The iPhone will end all jobs.

Steve Jobs ended my job when he said Flash was dead.



Why the fuck am I laughing?
It's better than crying.

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NatalieK

Yes it's possible for many jobs to be over taken as many have by machines & IT operations

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shake

In the long run yes, and we'll see prices drop for things that can be automated easily, so the net effect will be life becomes easier for most people.

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blackmonsters

Fixed it for you.

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geedub

You chose to limit yourself, not Steve Jobs. Then instead of doing anything, you go on the internet to complain about it.

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crockett

Most of those are bad examples to be honest.

The machine operator for example. Sure they will need 1 guy to watch over a machine that now does the work of 3 or 4 former employees.

You can see this in action at many big box stores today.. Look at walmart as example..

They used to have lots of cashiers now they have replaced them with a single person that watches over 6 or 8 self check out machines.

Those machines replaced 6 or 8 workers with 1.

My bank doesn't even have a drive up teller anymore. It's just a smart ATM machine with the option to talk to a teller probably in India..

As for the coal.. Coal is a dying industry but it's kept on, not so much because we can't replace it, but because it has powerful lobbyists and politicians in DC that will do anything possible to keep it alive for the votes in their home states..

The problem in the past we had the ability to absorb those people from old industry into new. However now it's much different and jobs are being attacked from all angles and places.

There will be a lot of people in the future that have no jobs. It's not just gonna be factory workers this time around.

Barry-xlovecam

What you do not seem to see is that the low cost 3rd world and developing world laborer is going to take the biggest losses.

Machines can operate the machines now.

Take the garment industry -- a human will supervise 4 machines setting up the garment to be sewn by robotics where some Asian factory workers did the actual sewing. We will not need to import the finished garment. The cloth could be woven by machinery here. So, the content would be 100% US machine made and assembled for less than it would cost making it in Asia. New jobs for American skilled or retrained workers. Machines and not human labor will make the USA completive in manufacturing again.

The low to medium skilled worker in Asia will work for 25% or less labor cost than a US worker -- you cannot compete with that in a global marketplace with a unequal playing field. Robots and AI are going to be the great equalizer over the next 30 or 50 years.

Profits and savings need to be shared equitably with the workers and the companies shareholders or stakeholders. Otherwise, there will be troubles and economic strife.

Former exporting countries will have to sell in their own domestic markets making products with their own local labor.

pimpmaster9000

the unemployed human beings will be standing in line to buy these garments...its going to be soooo profitable

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blackmonsters

You should read my sig before making such claims in addition to understanding what the
word hyperbole means.

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ilnjscb

LOL at 10 years. The era of genetic manipulation is just beginning. The era of AI has not yet begun. Automation will, unless civilization collapses, continue to slowly increase. But the great leap forward won't occur for at least 20 years. There are some bad times coming; we may not make it to strong AI.

crockett

Yeah that's the funny part. All these big corporations are in such a hurry to cut their costs on labor, but they don't think of who will be buying their products 20 years down the road..

There has to be a balance somewhere or everyone loses.

geedub

Let me lay it out for you. When you're as negative as you can be on this forum, people take what you post literally. I remember a week ago maybe, I visit gfy for the first time in a while and what is one of the first things I notice? You crying about how you couldn't get "a real job".

You claim to be college educated and a proficient programmer and you can't get a job? Something isn't adding up here. I'd offer you some work but based on what I've seen on GFY I hesitate to contact you. Seriously.

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pimpmaster9000

just want to point out that I am not talking about self aware god mode AI...I am talking about "AI"...100s of millions of jobs will be lost to the companies in the list below in 10 years time:

practical-artificial-intelligence-tools-you-can-use-today

Imagine just the below 2 companies in 10 years:

-DigitalGenius: Computer driven conversation with customers in ways that scale and serve.

-Conversica: AI to help you find your next customer, including automated email conversations to qualify leads.

These 2 companies alone will take 10-s of millions of jobs worldwide in 10 years time...the battle against human jobs has just begun...their product may be in its infancy now but in 10 years they will be kicking ass...

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pimpmaster9000

as I said above:

in the beginning the sahara was a lush jungle...then just a few plant types died away...the sun now heated more land, the plants absorbed less heat...then more plants died because of the increase in heat and so on...then all the plants died, and the wind blew away the soil...rock was left...the difference between night and day heat made rocks crack...and crack some more over and over...until the wind started to carry it and roll it and it was all fine sand in the end...then the dessert expanded and now great parts of it are sterile sand dunes...

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blackmonsters

Please.

That's a whole lot of big talk for someone sig whoring someone else's hosting company instead of his own skills.

.

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DrJsn

Have you guys heard the conspiracy theory about the World Elites wanting to kill off most of the human race. This is probably why, they know with the coming machines they wont need us regular humans as slaves any longer, they'll have robot slaves to serve them for free.

geedub

I don't sigwhore anything, Sly is my friend. We've even gone on vacation together. #nohomo

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Relic

If Steve is any indication, yes.

Paul Markham

Jobs are already disappearing. automation and exporting jobs is scary.

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ilnjscb

They don't want to kill us off, they want the population to be lower, so the earth's resources aren't strained. This is a good thing; The US and most developed nations are growing very slowly if at all. It is the nations with the least resources who are growing their populations the fastest. This leads to massive suffering, and inequality. Starving as a child is a horrible horrible fate.