The housing market looks about done here. - GoFuckYourself.com

slapass · 07-02-2017, 05:34 PM

My neck of the woods bottomed in 2012 from the crash. We have been booming ever since. Stuff I paid 50k for is selling for 130k and up. I sold almost all my single family homes and have flipped a few more and a few apartment buildings too. It is hard to get the top or bottom but we have to be super close to the top here.

Axeman · 07-02-2017, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slapass

My neck of the woods bottomed in 2012 from the crash. We have been booming ever since. Stuff I paid 50k for is selling for 130k and up. I sold almost all my single family homes and have flipped a few more and a few apartment buildings too. It is hard to get the top or bottom but we have to be super close to the top here.

Was worth to sell vs the trouble of renting the units out?

slapass · 07-02-2017, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axeman

Was worth to sell vs the trouble of renting the units out?

I bought them with idea of selling when they doubled. I invested in apartments and got a really good deal. So I am still in the industry.

Houses are much easier to manage but I was getting a smaller return versus equity.

onwebcam · 07-02-2017, 07:49 PM

The shit will hit the fan before long. It's ridiculous in my town. People are grossly overpaying due to low interest rates. The problem this time around rather than the last is the bankers took it on the chin by reducing interest rates and shaving interest off loans to reduce peoples payments instead of further reducing home values. This time around the people will be taking a huge beating. It will all be equity loss. There's no interest to shave. No doubt whatsoever many will be 50% upside down when it does go down.

slapass · 07-02-2017, 08:19 PM

I think we are seeing rampant building with little population growth so we will see prices soften. Then add in all the Wall Street owned single family houses and wham.

Barry-xlovecam · 07-02-2017, 08:23 PM

30 year mortgage rates may double in a few years.

onwebcam · 07-02-2017, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

30 year mortgage rates may double in a few years.

The Fed is on that track but they waited too long. They caught a lot of flack last time. Even having to come out and admit they are a private bank. Something they haven't done in 100 years. They will be taking FULL responsibility for the next one.

Bladewire · 07-02-2017, 08:50 PM

Guess what? The Canadian home price bubble has just bursted

Britain 'is on the brink of the worst house price collapse since 1990s': Experts predict property costs could plunge by FORTY PER CENT

Denmark Nears a Housing-Crisis Milestone as Deals Test 2006 High

Housing crisis: Household debt sees Australian banks downgraded again

The Housing Bubble Is Back

slapass · 07-02-2017, 09:05 PM

Well the US is not in for any huge thing that I can see but it is over heated.

onwebcam · 07-02-2017, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slapass

Well the US is not in for any huge thing that I can see but it is over heated.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/407...ing-bubble-2_0

Bladewire · 07-02-2017, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onwebcam

https://seekingalpha.com/article/407...ing-bubble-2_0

The Housing Bubble Is Back

Drake · 07-02-2017, 09:40 PM

Assuming there is going to be another crash, what is your plan to take advantage of it and make money off it. Even crashes make some people very wealthy.

onwebcam · 07-02-2017, 10:15 PM

As Mortgage Demand Cools and Competition Heats Up, More Lenders Are Planning to Ease Credit Standards | Fannie Mae

Goethe · 07-02-2017, 10:46 PM

Sydney is out of control and has been for a few years now. Nobody can see it continuing. Except the Chinese who seem to be buying anything they can get their hands on. Be interesting to see how it plays out.

mce · 07-02-2017, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

30 year mortgage rates may double in a few years.

Fixed or ARMS?

onwebcam · 07-02-2017, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mce

Fixed or ARMS?

Both are tied to Fed rate. If it goes up both do.

BaldBastard · 07-03-2017, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goethe

Sydney is out of control and has been for a few years now. Nobody can see it continuing. Except the Chinese who seem to be buying anything they can get their hands on. Be interesting to see how it plays out.

Nobody? sorry that's nobodies anyone with an iq over 40 and money in the bank can see this gravy train hasn't even started. The NSW's Government just ensured that by announcing they are spending billions of new infrastructure projects. And interest rate hike will hurt and hit, but it wont calm the Sydney market unless your out west. Sydney has its own natural market as westies move towards city and beaches. We don't have enough houses for projected growth, large chunk of the building industry's about to be tied up with Government projects. Every second retiree in the state is dumping the house for two apartments.... prices are going UP!

Goethe · 07-03-2017, 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBaldBastard

Nobody? sorry that's nobodies anyone with an iq over 40 and money in the bank can see this gravy train hasn't even started. The NSW's Government just ensured that by announcing they are spending billions of new infrastructure projects. And interest rate hike will hurt and hit, but it wont calm the Sydney market unless your out west. Sydney has its own natural market as westies move towards city and beaches. We don't have enough houses for projected growth, large chunk of the building industry's about to be tied up with Government projects. Every second retiree in the state is dumping the house for two apartments.... prices are going UP!

We'll have to beg to differ on that one. Ever thought why the retirees are dumping? When people think the market can only go up... well, anyone with an iq over 40 knows what happens next...

BaldBastard · 07-03-2017, 02:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goethe

We'll have to beg to differ on that one. Ever thought why the retirees are dumping? When people think the market can only go up... well, anyone with an iq over 40 knows what happens next...

So there's an influx of trained carpenters and the likes coming from some secret source? Aussies are suddenly deciding Parramatta is better than living beach suburbs? and the USA is about to start encouraging other nationalities like China to invest more in their cities?. And the OECD projected growth tables are all out of whack?.

You can fold but thanks I'll hold because I believe Sydney prices are some of the cheapest in the world. ( Sydney.. meaning a 25k radius from CBD ) not wog created suburbs out woopwoop

Barry-xlovecam · 07-03-2017, 06:11 AM

The Trumpnation will build WONDERFUL cities in rural America and create jobs for red-hats to live happily ever after

Housing is a cyclical market -- I have been involved with it most of my life. In the late 1970's before the housing 'crash' that high mortgage interest rate created
The USA is still in a slump as far as new housing https://www.census.gov/construction/...susintenta.pdf Why is that?

Housing is not such a good investment
You would thing the historicity low mortgage rates would increase new housing development -- Housing Affordability Index (Composite)? (COMPHAI)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eh5s

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eh5i
Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States (MSACSR)
Why is supply at a low point. Maybe, demand is lacking? Or, this is a seller's market.

If long term interest rates rise -- and most think they will -- housing will become less affordable. Unless, the US economy radially improves.

Putting coal miners back to work is not going to translate into a robust US economy.

Buy into fixed rate mortgages now or deleverage -- or sell and take capital gains.

slapass · 07-03-2017, 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBaldBastard

So there's an influx of trained carpenters and the likes coming from some secret source? Aussies are suddenly deciding Parramatta is better than living beach suburbs? and the USA is about to start encouraging other nationalities like China to invest more in their cities?. And the OECD projected growth tables are all out of whack?.

You can fold but thanks I'll hold because I believe Sydney prices are some of the cheapest in the world. ( Sydney.. meaning a 25k radius from CBD ) not wog created suburbs out woopwoop

Be aware that real estate cycles. 20 years ago, Americans all wanted to live way out and now they all want to live in the downtown.

slapass · 07-03-2017, 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake

Assuming there is going to be another crash, what is your plan to take advantage of it and make money off it. Even crashes make some people very wealthy.

Last time I shorted the home builders. Not sure they have run enough to make a short worthwhile.

slapass · 07-03-2017, 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

The Trumpnation will build WONDERFUL cities in rural America and create jobs for red-hats to live happily ever after

Housing is a cyclical market -- I have been involved with it most of my life. In the late 1970's before the housing 'crash' that high mortgage interest rate created
The USA is still in a slump as far as new housing https://www.census.gov/construction/...susintenta.pdf Why is that?

Housing is not such a good investment
You would thing the historicity low mortgage rates would increase new housing development -- Housing Affordability Index (Composite)? (COMPHAI)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eh5s

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eh5i
Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States (MSACSR)
Why is supply at a low point. Maybe, demand is lacking? Or, this is a seller's market.

If long term interest rates rise -- and most think they will -- housing will become less affordable. Unless, the US economy radially improves.

Putting coal miners back to work is not going to translate into a robust US economy.

Buy into fixed rate mortgages now or deleverage -- or sell and take capital gains.

We are building more multi family. Housing starts are high if you combine the numbers. I agree on take some money off the table.

07-02-2017, 05:34 PM	#1
slapass Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Earth Posts: 14,626	The housing market looks about done here. My neck of the woods bottomed in 2012 from the crash. We have been booming ever since. Stuff I paid 50k for is selling for 130k and up. I sold almost all my single family homes and have flipped a few more and a few apartment buildings too. It is hard to get the top or bottom but we have to be super close to the top here.

07-02-2017, 07:49 PM	#4
onwebcam Fake Nick 1.0 Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Rent free, your head Posts: 26,821	The shit will hit the fan before long. It's ridiculous in my town. People are grossly overpaying due to low interest rates. The problem this time around rather than the last is the bankers took it on the chin by reducing interest rates and shaving interest off loans to reduce peoples payments instead of further reducing home values. This time around the people will be taking a huge beating. It will all be equity loss. There's no interest to shave. No doubt whatsoever many will be 50% upside down when it does go down. __________________ PLEASE WAIT WHILE BIDEN ADMIN UNINSTALLS ITSELF..... ██████████████████▒ 99.5% complete.

07-02-2017, 10:15 PM	#13
onwebcam Fake Nick 1.0 Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Rent free, your head Posts: 26,821	As Mortgage Demand Cools and Competition Heats Up, More Lenders Are Planning to Ease Credit Standards \| Fannie Mae __________________ PLEASE WAIT WHILE BIDEN ADMIN UNINSTALLS ITSELF..... ██████████████████▒ 99.5% complete.

07-02-2017, 08:19 PM	#5
slapass Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Earth Posts: 14,626	I think we are seeing rampant building with little population growth so we will see prices soften. Then add in all the Wall Street owned single family houses and wham.

07-02-2017, 08:23 PM	#6
Barry-xlovecam It's 42 Industry Role: Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Global Posts: 18,083	30 year mortgage rates may double in a few years.

07-02-2017, 08:50 PM	#8
Bladewire StraightBro Industry Role: Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Monarch Beach, CA USA Posts: 56,232	Guess what? The Canadian home price bubble has just bursted Britain 'is on the brink of the worst house price collapse since 1990s': Experts predict property costs could plunge by FORTY PER CENT Denmark Nears a Housing-Crisis Milestone as Deals Test 2006 High Housing crisis: Household debt sees Australian banks downgraded again The Housing Bubble Is Back

07-02-2017, 09:05 PM	#9
slapass Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Earth Posts: 14,626	Well the US is not in for any huge thing that I can see but it is over heated.

07-02-2017, 09:40 PM	#12
Drake Hello world! Industry Role: Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 12,508	Assuming there is going to be another crash, what is your plan to take advantage of it and make money off it. Even crashes make some people very wealthy.

07-02-2017, 10:46 PM	#14
Goethe So Fuckin' Bored Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: Across the Universe Posts: 1,077	Sydney is out of control and has been for a few years now. Nobody can see it continuing. Except the Chinese who seem to be buying anything they can get their hands on. Be interesting to see how it plays out.

07-03-2017, 06:11 AM	#20
Barry-xlovecam It's 42 Industry Role: Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Global Posts: 18,083	The Trumpnation will build WONDERFUL cities in rural America and create jobs for red-hats to live happily ever after Housing is a cyclical market -- I have been involved with it most of my life. In the late 1970's before the housing 'crash' that high mortgage interest rate created The USA is still in a slump as far as new housing https://www.census.gov/construction/...susintenta.pdf Why is that? Housing is not such a good investment You would thing the historicity low mortgage rates would increase new housing development -- Housing Affordability Index (Composite)? (COMPHAI) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eh5s https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eh5i Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States (MSACSR) Why is supply at a low point. Maybe, demand is lacking? Or, this is a seller's market. If long term interest rates rise -- and most think they will -- housing will become less affordable. Unless, the US economy radially improves. Putting coal miners back to work is not going to translate into a robust US economy. Buy into fixed rate mortgages now or deleverage -- or sell and take capital gains.