Europe's Crisis: Much Bigger Than Subprime, Worse Than U.S.

[avalanche]

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, was among the few analysts whose forecasts for 2008 proved accurate. Mauldin, author of the popular "Thoughts from the Frontline" e-letter, joined us to discuss the economic situation in Eastern Europe.

Scroll down to read highlights from Mauldin's analysis, and click "more" to embed the video.

From The Business Insider:

If you think things are bad here, take a quick peek at what's going on across the pond:

The Telegraph: Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay ? or roll over ? $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.


Full Article: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...=ubs,cs,db,hbc

[Michael O]

I think I read it was €2500 billion most of it short term Europe will truly be fucked just a bad. Some analyst also predict Germany pulling out of the Euro because basically the Euro is fucked.
Interesting times ahead.

[PurrrsianPussyKat]

So wait.. americans aren't the only ones that lived beyond their means for years? I thought we were the cause of all the worlds ills.

[avalanche]

The article states in depth that the cause of the problem is not the US and it's fiscal policy. The problem is most of Europe is so far extended into developing countries that it can't recover without something like the Federal Reserve in the US.

[PornMD]

Print more money, print more money! That's how to solve the problem! /sarcasm

[notime]

All people face the same problem. Oilsheiks to blue collar workers.

[IllTestYourGirls]

The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.

[Redrob]

Sucks to be in business these days. I guess thing could be worse. We will see.

[Antonio]

$1.7 trillion? I'll cover that with the profit from one of my blogs in less than 2 weeks

[Drake]

Another notch on the belt for New World Order conspiracy theorists. lol

[Spunky]

Legalize the reefer and get more lube.we all get fucked in the ass eventually

[grumpy]

Originally Posted by PornMD

Print more money, print more money! That's how to solve the problem! /sarcasm

thats not sarcasm, thats what they are doing right now. Where do you think the bailout comes from? You think they have a secret locker with some money or someone is lending it to the USA? Solving debt with more debt will neger ever work. Not for Eurpope not for USA

[nolongerexists]

And in EU newspapers they say that US is going down... That's getting ridiculous :-)

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by blindzior

And in EU newspapers they say that US is going down... That's getting ridiculous :-)

The problems in the US are much bigger.

[Jensen]

glad we have some cash stacked away...

[Axel XXX]

Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls

The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.

So fuckin true...

[Pleasurepays]

Europe needs to start placing little, teeny tiny classified ads in 1000s of newspapers across the region, advertising products.

[Ethersync]

I have said that Europe is more fucked than the US for a long time. Posted many times about this on GFY. Nice to see it finally hitting the mainstream news. How things play out all depends on Germany. If they are unwilling or unable to shoulder the burden of bailing out the entire Euro Zone then the Euro may not survive.

[who]

I don't care about any of it. I have 250,000,000 Zimbabwean Dollars.

[who]

Evidence:

[wjxxx]

It`s bullshit. Eastern European countries have really small debt:
Estonia - 3,4% GDP
Russia - 5,9 % GDP
Latvia - 7,4% GDP
Ukraine - 11,7% GDP

comparing with Central European contries:
Slovenia - 23,6% GDP
Czech Republic - 26% GDP
Slovakia - 35,9% GDP

or West European countries:
Netherlands - 45,5% GDP
Austria - 59,1% GDP
Germany - 64,9% GDP
Greece - 89,5% GDP
Italy - 104% GDP

The best is Japan 170% GDP, Lebanon 186,6% GDP and Zimbabwe 218.2% GDP

source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...by_public_debt

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Yeah but "Europe" and "Crisis" are synonyms for the past 50 years.

Try to herd cats with dogs - it will end up as "crisis".

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by Michael O

I think I read it was ?2500 billion most of it short term Europe will truly be fucked just a bad. Some analyst also predict Germany pulling out of the Euro because basically the Euro is fucked.
Interesting times ahead.

Who was that "some analyst?" I would like to meet him, I will make sure he will feel like a complete idiot.

[Fletch XXX]

the same drunks who cant control spending and their own credit in the US (congressman, lawmakers, senators, government etc...) are in control there.

you cant trust drunks with your money.

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls

The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.

Keynesian, NeoKeynesian / fuckeynesian - there is no economical theory that would ever "work", that's why they are called theories.

You can have a coffee with Stieglitz and he will explain it in better words than me.

The last theory that worked in the 20 th century was 12 years of reign of a certain, not too popular politician in Germany and also the reign of a couple, not too popular politicians in the Soviet Union (of course I'm not talking about Gorbatschev).

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by notime

All people face the same problem. Oilsheiks to blue collar workers.

Jack, you're reminding me of someone.

[$5 submissions]

Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls

The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.

People need to realize that Business cycles are natural and should be left to unwind. Trying to "manage" it just creates bigger problems down the road.

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by $5 submissions

People need to realize that Business cycles are natural and should be left to unwind. Trying to "manage" it just creates bigger problems down the road.

Find a way how to push this on the political field.

You will clearly deserve the honorary Nobel prize for economy - for life.

You should also get inaugurated and become saint - fuck Mother Teresa, she didn't helped nowhere that many people in her lifetime that you would help in every second of the rest of your life once this would get into effect.

[Pleasurepays]

Originally Posted by $5 submissions

People need to realize that Business cycles are natural and should be left to unwind. Trying to "manage" it just creates bigger problems down the road.

empathy and emotion will always trump reason and logic. THAT is the problem with economics in the context of this discussion.

[$5 submissions]

Originally Posted by CarlosTheGaucho

Find a way how to push this on the political field.

Thanks but no thanks. It is almost impossible to extricate the entitlement mentality that undergirds most economic tinkering by politicians. No one person can do it. It may take a general dissatisfaction and disgust with statist solutions arising out of hyperinflationary economic stagnation (similar to Jimmy Carter's term in the 70s).

[notime]

Originally Posted by CarlosTheGaucho

Jack, you're reminding me of someone.

But I don't have a mustache

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by $5 submissions

Thanks but no thanks. It is almost impossible to extricate the entitlement mentality that undergirds most economic tinkering by politicians. No one person can do it. It may take a general dissatisfaction and disgust with statist solutions arising out of hyperinflationary economic stagnation (similar to Jimmy Carter's term in the 70s).

And that's what makes life so exciting - total lack of quality in people mixed with idiocy and ignoration.

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by wjxxx

It`s bullshit. Eastern European countries have really small debt:
Estonia - 3,4% GDP
Russia - 5,9 % GDP
Latvia - 7,4% GDP
Ukraine - 11,7% GDP

comparing with Central European contries:
Slovenia - 23,6% GDP
Czech Republic - 26% GDP
Slovakia - 35,9% GDP

or West European countries:
Netherlands - 45,5% GDP
Austria - 59,1% GDP
Germany - 64,9% GDP
Greece - 89,5% GDP
Italy - 104% GDP

The best is Japan 170% GDP, Lebanon 186,6% GDP and Zimbabwe 218.2% GDP

source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...by_public_debt

wjxxx

I will citate one of my all time favorite politicians Leonid Brezhnev:

Mr. econom, I'll only get a headache from all those numbers of yours, let's go hunting!

[NoComments]

when you import:
American music, American culture, McDonalds, Pizza Huts, etc,
you import American financial calamities too.
Good luck, Europe. The last American Depression was conquered thru the WWII in Europe.
Us, Americans, know thta and we can easily do it again! Have you seen Iran and North Korea working on nuks to kill us all? We'll save the world once again and our own asses in the process.

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Anonymous (6:58 AM) :
well I know for a fact that the Dutch are secretly thinking about printing new money called either daalders/florijnen or guilders.

CarlosTheGaucho (6:58 AM) :
European union is the fail, not Euro

CarlosTheGaucho (6:58 AM) :
it will not be solved with printing different currency

Anonymous (6:58 AM) :
ok there you have a point indeed

ThumbLords (6:59 AM) :
but the deutsch mark and the dutch guilder were very strong before we introduced the fucking euro.

CarlosTheGaucho (6:59 AM) :
yes, and ask why, because Euro means a completely different / unfuctional economical environment, that means you have to respect the needs of the whole completely unfunctional European union

Anonymous (7:01 AM) :
ok again you have a point there.
on the other hand it is said Great Brittan will change from Pound to Euro so who knows what it will bring, either way those are scary times for loads of people.

CarlosTheGaucho (7:01 AM) :
well they tried to build something that can never work - united Europe

CarlosTheGaucho (7:01 AM) :
I will never want to share my interests with idiotic countries like ---censored--- or ---censored---

CarlosTheGaucho (7:01 AM) :
so I'm a solo player

CarlosTheGaucho (7:02 AM) :
I don't care where do I live but I won't be paying taxes to idiots

Anonymous (7:02 AM) :
1000% agredd.

Anonymous (7:02 AM) :
we should start an ecomic bbs together :-)

CarlosTheGaucho (7:02 AM) :
I will post it to GFY

[dyna mo]

someone forward this thread to those in charge in europe, posthaste!

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by NoComments

when you import:
American music, American culture, McDonalds, Pizza Huts, etc,
you import American financial calamities too.
Good luck, Europe. The last American Depression was conquered thru the WWII in Europe.
Us, Americans, know thta and we can easily do it again! Have you seen Iran and North Korea working on nuks to kill us all? We'll save the world once again and our own asses in the process.

[Ethersync]

Originally Posted by wjxxx

It`s bullshit. Eastern European countries have really small debt:
Estonia - 3,4% GDP
Russia - 5,9 % GDP
Latvia - 7,4% GDP
Ukraine - 11,7% GDP

comparing with Central European contries:
Slovenia - 23,6% GDP
Czech Republic - 26% GDP
Slovakia - 35,9% GDP

or West European countries:
Netherlands - 45,5% GDP
Austria - 59,1% GDP
Germany - 64,9% GDP
Greece - 89,5% GDP
Italy - 104% GDP

The best is Japan 170% GDP, Lebanon 186,6% GDP and Zimbabwe 218.2% GDP

source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...by_public_debt

Damn. You figured it all out. Eastern Europe is fine folks! No problems whatsoever

[evie]

Originally Posted by who

Evidence:

How much that really worth?

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by NoComments

when you import:
American music, American culture, McDonalds, Pizza Huts, etc,
you import American financial calamities too.
Good luck, Europe. The last American Depression was conquered thru the WWII in Europe.
Us, Americans, know thta and we can easily do it again! Have you seen Iran and North Korea working on nuks to kill us all? We'll save the world once again and our own asses in the process.

i'm certainly not up for arguing with serge but the eurozone trade deficit is due to a fall in exports and lower consumer spending- and the deficit has only risen recently while there was a surplus up to a few years ago.

also, while the great depression ended during wwII, there is still debate about whether or not the war caused the end of the depression.

times ahead dont look too good!

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

i'm certainly not up for arguing with serge

Please - no contraversy!

[Michael O]

Originally Posted by CarlosTheGaucho

Who was that "some analyst?" I would like to meet him, I will make sure he will feel like a complete idiot.

Hayman Advisors
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...r7A&refer=home

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by evie

How much that really worth?

About Evie,

Say hello to that old burglar, let him get well.

I'm sure he'll be able to handle the disease even in that terrible ancient age of him as far as I know his boards enthusiasm!

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by Michael O

Hayman Advisors
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...r7A&refer=home

As a matter of fact, I know someone that's quite high in the Bloomberg food chain as I did the feature story about our business in the sig.

I am going to ask him to let them get in touch with me for a consultation !

LOL

[MaDalton]

Originally Posted by Michael O

I think I read it was ?2500 billion most of it short term Europe will truly be fucked just a bad. Some analyst also predict Germany pulling out of the Euro because basically the Euro is fucked.
Interesting times ahead.

i would love to know who that analyst is supposed to be cause it's the first time i ever hear about it. so if that was Germanies plan it has not made german news yet.

[Ethersync]

Originally Posted by evie

How much that really worth?

Damn near nothing, well, except what you can sell it for on eBay I suppose. Their money had expiration dates because of how out of control inflation was

I think they are trying to move to some new standard now that is rate pegged to another stable currency.

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by MaDalton

i would love to know who that analyst is supposed to be cause it's the first time i ever hear about it. so if that was Germanies plan it has not made german news yet.

[Ethersync]

Originally Posted by MaDalton

i would love to know who that analyst is supposed to be cause it's the first time i ever hear about it. so if that was Germanies plan it has not made german news yet.

I have been reading about this for most of 2008 and all of 2009. Many economists and analysts have said the Euro will not survive. Even Milton Friedman said that the Euro will fail when they have their next serious recession...

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by Ethersync

Even Milton Friedman said that the Euro will fail when they have their next serious recession...

Let that old scrap move his senile ass to the world behind the university doors someday!





Ok I need to drive somewhere, but hell do I enjoy this.