Oops - Obama and McCain now Tied
 

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

theres 100s of polls

none of them match up.

ive given up on pollls

I don't think any single poll is reliable enough because they all have some sampling bias. For example the recent AP poll was weighted incorrectly because it polled an unrepresentative amount of evangelicals, which tends to favor Republicans. It's probably best to take the average spread of polls like on http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

The polls are just general snapshots. I guess the polls that really matter are the state-by-state polls because it's whoever gets enough electoral votes that counts.

People are saying it'll be a landslide. It may or may not be. I suspect Obama will win some battleground states but also lose some. Being ahead within the margin of error means it could tip either way. One thing that seems to be playing in Obama's favor are reports of record Democratic turnout among early voters.

Silly republicans, good luck Nov 4th.

IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74%-22% among 18-24 year olds.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

i've seen so many that put mccain winning by 20 or more points. so ludicrous.

shit, fox news big boy poll had him winning 87% to 13%

haha


edit: also don't forget about the shady voting machines that they are already fnding that vote for mccain when people press obama on the touch screen.

Yeah.. Fox's poll was the one I was going to mention... according to them McCain won every single debate by a wide margin...:Oh crap

That says it all lol

You really have to look at the average of all the polls to get a clear picture. The spread right now is Obama +7

Maybe people are realizing he is a piece of shit, and shouldn't be president..

Oabama will take it :)

Of course McCain supporters believe this crap. If you have ONE poll, saying one thing, and 100 others saying another which one is more likely to be right?

Well all of the other polls must have a liberal bias :winkwink:

IBD/TIPP was the most accurate in 2004 and 2006 !

we will see in 1 1/2 weeks

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh Yeah, that demographic just floods the polling places.


I have a question for whomever wants to answer: what percentage of registered voters do you anticipate showing up to actually vote?

It was 64% in 2004 and 60% in 2000. I think it will get close to 70% this year. The competitive primaries on both ends registered a ton of new voters. The primaries saw huge turnouts and I think a lot of people feel vested in the election.

And I think 18-24 will be surprising. It was up over 50% in the primaries, and Obama has some crazy get out the vote operations. It puts Kerry and Gore to shame. If the general election is up as much as the primary was, it puts 18-24 year olds in line with the national average.

Then again, if the polls keep going the way they're going, there may be more people on both sides just staying home this year.

The whole "Democrats are going to hand out the taxpayer money" knock doesn't quite have the same steam when Republicans just gave out trillions to financial institutions, insurance companies, and banks.

Don't the dems control congress and the senate ?

Yes, but what does that have to do with the Treasury?

And to those who forgot, the free market capitalist Republicans gave hundreds of billions (some estimations have it at a trillion) to AIG, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. A cute little stealth bailout of Countrywide. They also will pick up the tab for about $20 billion of Washington Mutual's bad debt. We are also on the hook for parts of Wachovia.

Who is the party that's been passing out our taxpayers money like candy again?

nah, republicans are still pretty much behind. Every commentator on TV says that.

no way, Obama is up by 10 points... give or take a few with margin for error.. I've been watchin this like a hawk.. its gonna be all democrat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081024/..._politics_poll

OOops Obama and McCain still both blow cock now...

Serioulsy 74% of young people are for McCain? Come on.

Yeah for the last 21 months. You think you can fix 12 years of republican control in 21 months? Especailly when you still of a dipshit republican in the Whitehouse?

Do you believe that? God you are fucking stupid. Please don't vote. In fact kill yourself and rid the world of your ingorance. Hey Einstien where is the money going to come from so McCain can give everyone a $5000 check for health insurance? He's either going to have to borrow it from the Chinese or tax the wealthy

hehehehe, funny

I only trust Gallup.

yes, every negative thing is one way or the other always the dems fault no matter who is in office


:upsidedow

Absolutely everyone I have heard talk about this election is for Obama.

From rednecks, to green card holders, old people, military, catholics, all of them.

So its going to be very scary if he doesn't win.

Why dont they just take it a step further and say that Mccain is ahead by 10 pts. The bigger the lie the more believeable it will be to the sheep.

I think the biggest danger for Obama at the moment is how many people think he's a lock and they decide to stay at home instead. McCain supporters are probably a little more likely to turnout and vote because of whatever kink they have on certain topics (abortion, conservative judges, etc, etc).

As for this thread, poll numbers are just generally ridiculous to follow, because a poll doesn't represent what happens once the curtain is drawn and no one can see who you're voting for and I think the race is a lot closer than people think at the moment.

Obama should be sure to stress the fact that people need to go vote and not just assume he's going to win.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh :1orglaugh:1orglaugh

I hear many people that are against Obama, most of my friends own businesses.....

so I guess you're only hearing half of the people in the country (according to all the polls...

I wonder why that is...........?



:upsidedow

LOL thats a coffee spitter! :1orglaugh

If the media said it's a done deal, they have nothing to report. Somebody else on the board previously said something like 'it's pretty amazing how every election is almost a 50/50 split and supposedly decided by less than 200,000 people in a country of over 300 million'.

I love the whole "spreading the tax payer's money around" thing.... it's such a terribly evil thing that Americans would NOT vote for a candidate that would actually spend the tax payer's money on the tax payers.

Most other top countries all have welfare systems, health care and other tax paid programs and strangely enough, aren't evil. They are even democratic. Shocking I know.
But if the US actually used tax payer money on the tax payers, that would be disastrous.

No, it's much smarter to just keep borrowing more money. Spend the tax payer's money on war and more military. Borrow money to bail out billionaires who screwed up. And let the tax payer have their lower taxes so that they'll vote for you. They'll go broke within 4 years and have no unemployment or welfare to fall back on and when they get sick, they're screwed, but hell, their taxes didn't go up 1% so they'll vote for you!

Brilliant.