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So you think THIS recession is bad?
I have this newspaper from March 9, 1933. Here are some highlights.
"All banking institutions under the supervision of the State Banking Commissioner are authorized to pay $10 to depositors who can prove they are in need for food, fuel, medicine and other necessities" "Washington asks for names of all who have withdrawn currency or gold in sizable amounts from banks in new England since January 1". "Food situation eases" "The President is said to have asked for practically dictatorial powers over the banking situation and to rule by proclamation until congress can act" I thought this was interesting ... "3500 Shoe Strikers Return to Work" .. "The 12 firms which came to terms today with their operatives granted no pay increases but agreed to recognize the union" |
makes me feel all warm and cozy. Glad i was not around then.
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pretty shitty everywhere
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There's also an article announcing that a "Nazi Flying Corp" has been formed in Germany.
Goering's name is mentioned. The slogan was "Help In Achieving Full Liberation From the Fetters Of The Infamous Versailles Treaty" Oh, and there's an ad for a dozen jelly doughnuts for 15 cents. Normally 25 cents. |
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Sorry, I don't think this is all that bad. On my block of 40 houses, 15 of them are empty - most of them in forclousure. Yet every time I go to the store or out to eat, there are people everywhere spending money. Until my home town here opens up a soup kitchen, I think we'll get by. |
Wait, you're comparing a recession to a depression?
If this recession worsens (over the next 3-4 years) to the point where there is total collapse, please feel free to make another more accurate comparison. |
Local eateries are packed. Movie theaters are full and there's no sign of people selling cars and stopping driving.
In Southern California, I have seen no sign of a recession let alone a depression. |
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Oy vey.. I remember the bread lines back then and selling pencils and apples. With FDR's fireside chats we had hope on our side.
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Isn't it true that if we calculated unemployment the same way they did in 1930, we'd be at double digit unemployment easily?
Maybe less people "notice" because there is a wider gap between the two classes: rich and poor? Just throwing those out there, because I dont freaking know, these are speculations I've heard is all. Better minds can slice and dice it all up. |
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The common definition used in the United States is U-3. The current non-seasonally adjusted unemployment numbers run from 3.1 to 15.4% depending on which definition you use. The common definition (U-3) is currently 8.5%. The seasonally adjusted numbers run from 3% to 13.9% and the headline U-3 number is 7.6%. Unemployment data before 1940 is just educated guesswork. There is no reliable way to compare data across 1940 though there was a census of sorts in 1937. Since 1940 there has been the "Current Population Survey"; a rather large reliable survey. The basic definition of unemployment that you hear about today has not really changed much since 1940 though occasionally the question has been changed slightly. Like asking "Are you looking for a job" vs "Were you looking for a job last week"? There is one study that shows you should add .2% to today's unemployment figures to compare to numbers before the 90s. This is because there were changes to the way the survey was collected and it seems to have introduced a negative .2% bias in the data. To me the best way to look at the data and say, compare recessions, is to look at the baseline numbers before, after and during the recessions. How much do they change? |
It all seems like tossing bones and colored stones on a diagram and reading them.
I guess we have to just be reasonably sure that they're giving useful data and get a good read. |
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For unemployment you have both the government survey and the ADP payrolls report so you have a private sector check on the government numbers. ADP's survey covers 24 million people. Think about how difficult it is to measure inflation (or the GDP deflator) though. Hundreds of employees scouring stores trying to find a bracelet just like the one used in last month's survey. But wait! - it's on sale this month. Now what? |
I'll trade one post-war paper from the UK (March 04 1946) for your paper from March 9, 1933
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1933 was 4 years after the crash in 1929.
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Went to Utah skiing last week. On saturday they CLOSED the mountain road into the canyon because there was no more parking available at TWO resorts in the canyon. My flight back was completly sold out and when we tried to go to outback for dinner saturday night there was an 1:30 minute wait |
1933 was also when :
From: President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt .... ...All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933... Marking the start of the end of the gold standard... Fraction reserve banking, is not able to run for ever as it introduces debt on every dollar printed.. Because each dollar on loan with a % of interest attached to it.. Dollar values go down and you need to borrow more and more to stay level.. bla bla bla... could be this is just a bump in the road or the start of a new direction then next 12 months will start to show the direction.. |
Let it go
How far will a falling star take me How far can I go can I go Gotta be what the nightmare made me Gotta be gotta be what I see Jump clear of the falling parts from me How far will they go will they go Cant give what you need from me baby Just let it go Bringing me down break me down sweet sugar Bringing me down break me down Breaking me down to the ground sweet baby Breaking me down to the ground Too much is made of whats in me Not enough about how I strive Keep an eye on your world its cheating Keep an eye keep an eye on me Deep inside theres a little place for me A little place for me Cant give what you want from me baby Just leave it be Sweet razor wound Deep down slice my groove Sweet razor wound Deep down cmon and slice it How far did the falling star take me How far did it go did it go Had to be what the nightmare made me Fuck,..just had to be Jump clear of the falling parts form me How far did they go did they go Cant give what you want from me baby Hell,..just let it go |
The worst is yet to come dont fucking kid yourselves
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yes i do but groceries are cheap
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If anyone needs me, I'll be sitting down here in the campfire light searching for the ghost of Tom Joad
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