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-   -   So you think THIS recession is bad? (https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=890288)

ADL Colin 02-26-2009 08:49 AM

So you think THIS recession is bad?
 
I have this newspaper from March 9, 1933. Here are some highlights.

"All banking institutions under the supervision of the State Banking Commissioner are authorized to pay $10 to depositors who can prove they are in need for food, fuel, medicine and other necessities"

"Washington asks for names of all who have withdrawn currency or gold in sizable amounts from banks in new England since January 1".

"Food situation eases"

"The President is said to have asked for practically dictatorial powers over the banking situation and to rule by proclamation until congress can act"

I thought this was interesting ...
"3500 Shoe Strikers Return to Work" .. "The 12 firms which came to terms today with their operatives granted no pay increases but agreed to recognize the union"

notoldschool 02-26-2009 08:55 AM

makes me feel all warm and cozy. Glad i was not around then.

HorseShit 02-26-2009 09:12 AM

pretty shitty everywhere

ADL Colin 02-26-2009 09:13 AM

There's also an article announcing that a "Nazi Flying Corp" has been formed in Germany.

Goering's name is mentioned. The slogan was
"Help In Achieving Full Liberation From the Fetters Of The Infamous Versailles Treaty"

Oh, and there's an ad for a dozen jelly doughnuts for 15 cents. Normally 25 cents.

Rochard 02-26-2009 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADL Colin (Post 15553318)
There's also an article announcing that a "Nazi Flying Corp" has been formed in Germany.

That's a sign of very bad things to come!

Sorry, I don't think this is all that bad. On my block of 40 houses, 15 of them are empty - most of them in forclousure. Yet every time I go to the store or out to eat, there are people everywhere spending money. Until my home town here opens up a soup kitchen, I think we'll get by.

StuartD 02-26-2009 09:40 AM

Wait, you're comparing a recession to a depression?

If this recession worsens (over the next 3-4 years) to the point where there is total collapse, please feel free to make another more accurate comparison.

BradM 02-26-2009 09:43 AM

Local eateries are packed. Movie theaters are full and there's no sign of people selling cars and stopping driving.

In Southern California, I have seen no sign of a recession let alone a depression.

Carmine Raguso 02-26-2009 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BradM (Post 15553429)
Local eateries are packed. Movie theaters are full and there's no sign of people selling cars and stopping driving.

In Southern California, I have seen no sign of a recession let alone a depression.

gee, go easy there lol

LAJ 02-26-2009 09:47 AM

Oy vey.. I remember the bread lines back then and selling pencils and apples. With FDR's fireside chats we had hope on our side.

Ethersync 02-26-2009 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADL Colin (Post 15553212)
I have this newspaper from March 9, 1933. Here are some highlights.

"All banking institutions under the supervision of the State Banking Commissioner are authorized to pay $10 to depositors who can prove they are in need for food, fuel, medicine and other necessities"

"Washington asks for names of all who have withdrawn currency or gold in sizable amounts from banks in new England since January 1".

"Food situation eases"

"The President is said to have asked for practically dictatorial powers over the banking situation and to rule by proclamation until congress can act"

I thought this was interesting ...
"3500 Shoe Strikers Return to Work" .. "The 12 firms which came to terms today with their operatives granted no pay increases but agreed to recognize the union"

That is like 4 years into the great depression. We are just getting started now...

Penthouse Tony 02-26-2009 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LAJ (Post 15553442)
Oy vey.. I remember the bread lines back then and selling pencils and apples. With FDR's fireside chats we had hope on our side.

You look really good for your age. What's your secret?

ADL Colin 02-26-2009 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StuartD (Post 15553408)
Wait, you're comparing a recession to a depression?

If this recession worsens (over the next 3-4 years) to the point where there is total collapse, please feel free to make another more accurate comparison.

Wow, you got it! go get a cookie now.

Tom_PM 02-26-2009 10:08 AM

Isn't it true that if we calculated unemployment the same way they did in 1930, we'd be at double digit unemployment easily?

Maybe less people "notice" because there is a wider gap between the two classes: rich and poor?

Just throwing those out there, because I dont freaking know, these are speculations I've heard is all. Better minds can slice and dice it all up.

Ethersync 02-26-2009 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PR_Tom (Post 15553523)
Isn't it true that if we calculated unemployment the same way they did in 1930, we'd be at double digit unemployment easily?

Maybe less people "notice" because there is a wider gap between the two classes: rich and poor?

Just throwing those out there, because I dont freaking know, these are speculations I've heard is all. Better minds can slice and dice it all up.

Yes, unemployment is calculated differently now. So is inflation and GDP...

ADL Colin 02-26-2009 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PR_Tom (Post 15553523)
Isn't it true that if we calculated unemployment the same way they did in 1930, we'd be at double digit unemployment easily?

The thing to understand about current unemployment data is there are 6 different definitions of unemployment and then you have seasonally adjusted figures and non-seasonally adjusted. The definitions run from U-1 to U-6. There are seasonal adjustments because it is easier to compare for example December to January when the effects of Christmas hiring are removed.

The common definition used in the United States is U-3. The current non-seasonally adjusted unemployment numbers run from 3.1 to 15.4% depending on which definition you use. The common definition (U-3) is currently 8.5%. The seasonally adjusted numbers run from 3% to 13.9% and the headline U-3 number is 7.6%.

Unemployment data before 1940 is just educated guesswork. There is no reliable way to compare data across 1940 though there was a census of sorts in 1937. Since 1940 there has been the "Current Population Survey"; a rather large reliable survey. The basic definition of unemployment that you hear about today has not really changed much since 1940 though occasionally the question has been changed slightly. Like asking "Are you looking for a job" vs "Were you looking for a job last week"? There is one study that shows you should add .2% to today's unemployment figures to compare to numbers before the 90s. This is because there were changes to the way the survey was collected and it seems to have introduced a negative .2% bias in the data.

To me the best way to look at the data and say, compare recessions, is to look at the baseline numbers before, after and during the recessions. How much do they change?

Tom_PM 02-26-2009 11:37 AM

It all seems like tossing bones and colored stones on a diagram and reading them.

I guess we have to just be reasonably sure that they're giving useful data and get a good read.

ADL Colin 02-26-2009 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PR_Tom (Post 15554014)
It all seems like tossing bones and colored stones on a diagram and reading them.

I guess we have to just be reasonably sure that they're giving useful data and get a good read.

The data is collected by surveying over 100,000 businesses.

For unemployment you have both the government survey and the ADP payrolls report so you have a private sector check on the government numbers. ADP's survey covers 24 million people.

Think about how difficult it is to measure inflation (or the GDP deflator) though. Hundreds of employees scouring stores trying to find a bracelet just like the one used in last month's survey. But wait! - it's on sale this month. Now what?

Antonio 02-26-2009 01:26 PM

I'll trade one post-war paper from the UK (March 04 1946) for your paper from March 9, 1933

ADL Colin 02-26-2009 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio (Post 15554550)
I'll trade one post-war paper from the UK (March 04 1946) for your paper from March 9, 1933

That's a cool paper but i collect business/econ memorabilia. There are depression newpapers on ebay all the time though.

onwebcam 02-26-2009 01:41 PM

1933 was 4 years after the crash in 1929.

LAJ 02-26-2009 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sagi_AFF (Post 15553507)
You look really good for your age. What's your secret?

Hey... someone who reads thru threads! :pimp

Forest 02-26-2009 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BradM (Post 15553429)
Local eateries are packed. Movie theaters are full and there's no sign of people selling cars and stopping driving.

In Southern California, I have seen no sign of a recession let alone a depression.

I tried to go to the sawgrass mall a few weeks ago. Sawgrass is a MONSTER mall. there was not one fucking parking space available. took me 45 minutes to find parking

Went to Utah skiing last week. On saturday they CLOSED the mountain road into the canyon because there was no more parking available at TWO resorts in the canyon.

My flight back was completly sold out and when we tried to go to outback for dinner saturday night there was an 1:30 minute wait

PAR 02-26-2009 02:19 PM

1933 was also when :
From: President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt ....

...All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933...

Marking the start of the end of the gold standard...

Fraction reserve banking, is not able to run for ever as it introduces debt on every dollar printed.. Because each dollar on loan with a % of interest attached to it..

Dollar values go down and you need to borrow more and more to stay level..
bla bla bla...

could be this is just a bump in the road or the start of a new direction then next 12 months will start to show the direction..

Killswitch - BANNED FOR LIFE 02-26-2009 02:24 PM

Let it go
How far will a falling star take me
How far can I go can I go
Gotta be what the nightmare made me
Gotta be gotta be what I see
Jump clear of the falling parts from me
How far will they go will they go
Cant give what you need from me baby
Just let it go

Bringing me down break me down sweet sugar
Bringing me down break me down
Breaking me down to the ground sweet baby
Breaking me down to the ground

Too much is made of whats in me
Not enough about how I strive
Keep an eye on your world its cheating
Keep an eye keep an eye on me
Deep inside theres a little place for me
A little place for me
Cant give what you want from me baby
Just leave it be

Sweet razor wound
Deep down slice my groove
Sweet razor wound
Deep down cmon and slice it

How far did the falling star take me
How far did it go did it go
Had to be what the nightmare made me
Fuck,..just had to be
Jump clear of the falling parts form me
How far did they go did they go
Cant give what you want from me baby
Hell,..just let it go

Splum 02-26-2009 02:27 PM

The worst is yet to come dont fucking kid yourselves

brassmonkey 02-26-2009 02:30 PM

yes i do but groceries are cheap

ADL Colin 02-26-2009 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onwebcam (Post 15554655)
1933 was 4 years after the crash in 1929.

Yeah and 1933 was 6 years before "Gone With The Wind" Came Out. Point?

pornguy 02-26-2009 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rochard (Post 15553403)
That's a sign of very bad things to come!

Sorry, I don't think this is all that bad. On my block of 40 houses, 15 of them are empty - most of them in forclousure. Yet every time I go to the store or out to eat, there are people everywhere spending money. Until my home town here opens up a soup kitchen, I think we'll get by.

I agree. I think one of the biggest things is people got into homes they could not afford, went into foreclosure and then bailed out of them. Now living on homes they can afford and life is about as normal.

The Seduction of Art 02-26-2009 03:05 PM

If anyone needs me, I'll be sitting down here in the campfire light searching for the ghost of Tom Joad


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