US Economy Recovering?
 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aT_OkQWvWWj0

If tax receipts are down, does this mean growth is unlikely? That gap is huge.

Also, since wealthy americans can leave the country but never cut ties with the IRS, doesnt this mean theres a limit to how low tax receipts can go no matter how high the US govt raises taxes?

Not even close to recovering.

Things are gonna be shit for the next 5 years, pay all debts off because the dollar & sterling especially the dollar will be worthless. Keep some gold and silver.
I'm afraid its the start of the Great Depression 2 - FACT

Banks are failing every week in America over here in the UK Halifax bank are closing 300 branches in the next 12 months. 26 have closed already, it doesnt look good.
This shit is part of the Elites plan to break us slowly attacking our weaknesses.

Fuck the New World Order
Kill Illuminati

Things are gonna be shit for the next 5 years, pay all debts off because the dollar & sterling especially the dollar will be worthless. Keep some gold and silver.
I'm afraid its the start of the Great Depression 2 - FACT

Banks are failing every week in America over here in the UK Halifax bank are closing 300 branches in the next 12 months. 26 have closed already, it doesnt look good.
This shit is part of the Elites plan to break us slowly attacking our weaknesses.

Fuck the New World Order
Kill Illuminati

the economy has been set to recover for almost two years now.

threads like this will be started daily for the next five to ten years.

Holy shit, you actually get it. Maybe you can teach the morons on this forum something..

Unemployment keeps rising, dollar keeps dropping, consumer spending keeps dropping, deficit spending is at an all time high, foreclosures are increasing, etc. No, we're in this for the next 10-15 years by which time we will have created a new economic system or rather revert back to the gold standard or anything non Keynesian.

:2 cents:

while certainly not recovered, indicators point to broad economic recovery.

i would say the worst is behind us and we are on the path to recovery.

What indicators? Show me ONE? And please don't say "Because Obama and Bernanke said so!!!"

The only thing the indicators show is that we are in a depression and we are spiraling towards collapse.

Usually I think you are a total loon, but you are dead on with this one.

Can I have what you're smoking?

This mess is just getting started.

Here you go.

http://kiplinger.com/businessresource/recovery/

According to Kiplinger two of the six major indicators that the economy is recovering have turned positive with a third, consumer confidence, starting to inch its way positive.

Here is another. Although this one is from the end of July so it is about 6 weeks old

http://www.russell.com/helping-advis...ydashboard.asp

According to this one 2 of 3 leading indicators and 3 of 4 lagging indicators are within the range that shows economic recovery happening.

gear down there buddy.

here's more than a few links to back up my comment, i would enjoy reading any viable sources you can provide to back up your comment that we are in a depression and spiraling toward collapse.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1252...googlenews_wsj


http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/...y_6875425.html




http://www.forextv.com/Forex/News/Sh...=Economic+News


http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...00540420090911


http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...38425120090910

indicators world wide point to most all large scale economies heading in the right direction

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a.CfVUrpskgY

I really fucking hope so ........

.

Ah yes, this guy is an idiot. Home sales? Oh you mean people finally buying foreclosed homes while more and more homes become foreclosed? Or perhaps the interest rates lowering, which Obama thinks will increase consumer spending. Unfortunately, this isn't a recovery indicator if for every $1 an American makes, he spends $5.50. That's like saying our economy is recovering because Cash for Clunkers was a success!! So instead of saving up and buying a car next year, consumers borrowed and bought now! Most people haven't learned what is collapsing our economy the past 30 years.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com

And if you knew economics and were able to do the math, you wouldn't be "hoping" for a recovery in a "recession". You'd be praying we don't collapse.

This is lovely. Except your assertion was that the US recovery is recovering. You sending me a link about worldwide economies does nothing for your point. And yes, worldwide economies are recovering BECAUSE they are running some sort of surpluses. We are spiraling towards collapse because we are running nothing but deficits.




While China will be the new superpower instead of America, its problems are the opposite of America's. It produces TOO MUCH and Americans have decreased consumer spending. Therefore they have warehouses stored with shit. However, they haver 2 trillion dollar of budget surplus that they can use to create a middle class.






Ah yes, lets listen to the Fed ROFL. The agency that has been printing money ruthlessly since 1913, the agency that is most responsible for all of America's historical economic problems. Yes, lets listen to the FED without any kind of logic or common sense.

the worst is yet to come

eeash, chill out man. i'm not gonna argue with ya or get into my level of economics/maths smarts either. i'm confident in my level of education and understanding, i don't have anything to prove to you eh. :-)

you asked for just one indicator, i provided at least one. the lease you could do is acknowledge that, i don't expect you to stop with the insult attempts.

fact is all large-scale economies' have indicators showing things are going in the right direction, as most economies are tied together, the u.s. could not really and truly recover while the rest of the world is in a depression and spiraling to collapse.

You have no understanding ROFL. That's why you tried to prove the US is recovering by posting links about World Economies. Nor did you provide any kind of basis for your findings. You just said "here's the link, go read". Education level my ass.

You've proven no indicators. I've explained to you how those aren't actual indicators if inflation rates are artificially low.

This is basically a last gasp for your argument as it makes absolutely no sense. Other countries have surpluses. We have world record deficits. Other countries are still producing. We are still consuming. Come back when you educate yourself.

not a prob, have a nice day.

1. Interest rates are being kept artificially low...
2. The Chinese are looking for ways to dump their dollars.
3. Gov's around the world are doing exactly what caused the problems and hoping it will solve them :error
4. Before the end of next year the commodities exchange will collapse...
5 ....

might wanna take a look at what happened in Argentina between 2000 and 2003...

you're right, u-bob. i stand corrected. not sure what i was thinking re: those indicators, i have a lot to learn from gfyers.

i realize now we've only got a few years left before it's all madmax.

i'm off to buy gold now.

The FULL consequences of all this banking fraud has yet to be felt. It's only just begun. :2 cents:

does anyone know the shelf-life of raman noodles? or should i just stock up on canned goods?

I have some here from 2002 that my son left. Does not appear to have an expiration date.

My bomb shelter is stocked with Jugs magazines, Twinkies and dehydrated water.

.

The economy is recovering, but there are plenty of storms on the horizon.

Well, it seems that in everything I read and see they take home sales into consideration as one sign of economic recovery. According to Realtor.org http://www.realtor.org/press_room/ne...strong_uptrend homes sales have improved each month for the last 4 months.

In case you don't want to read it here is a good excerpt :"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he is encouraged. ?The housing market has decisively turned for the better. A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales,? he said.

The monthly sales gain was the largest on record for the total existing-home sales series dating back to 1999.

?Because price-to-income ratios have fallen below historical trends, there are more all-cash offers. In some recovering markets like San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Orlando, the demand for foreclosed and lower priced homes has spiked, and a lack of inventory is becoming a common complaint,? Yun said."

So it sounds to me like a lot of people are buying houses for the first time because the price is right and they are getting some good incentives. No doubt many of these homes were/are foreclosures, but I would think seeing those homes sell is a positive thing as opposed to just seeing them sitting their empty.

I'm not saying we are out of the woods just yet, we have a long way to go, but I still think the indicators are showing positives steps forward.

Look back to my cash clunker analogy. You're saying consumer spending is rising, while I'm saying is falling and the only reason it's not falling as hard as it used to is because of these retarded stimulus plans that make people spend MORE money that they don't have. This is NOT a recovery, nor is this a "light at the end of the tunnel". The unemployment rate is still rising and our deficit spending is still going strong.

I would venture to guess that as the Chinese create a middle class that class will do exactly what the middle class in this country has done over the last 30 years. It will learn to debt spend. The only way the Chinese can stop that is if the force the citizens to control their spending otherwise you will get people who want a nicer car or a little bit bigger house and you end up exactly where we are. You have people who are surviving, but they are maxed out on credit and as soon as something goes wrong they are in deep trouble.

Maybe they won't. Maybe they will keep prices in line so that their middle class can afford a decent house and a decent car without overextending themselves in debt, but that might be difficult to do.

Cash for clunkers is a great point. Many of those cars probably wouldn't have been sold had their not been the cash for clunkers program. So it was the savings that got people to go out and spend money.

The idea of the stimulus plan is to put people to work and encourage spending. Consumer spending accounts for around 75% of our economy. Until that changes their is a need for consumer spending if there will be any kind of recovery. Debt spending is not going away any time soon. One of the problems is that that over the last 15 years or so many big purchases like cars and houses have gotten out of reach for the average person. Until that changes there will be no major change in debt spending. Deficit spending is projected to last at least another 10 years. But then the country has pretty much been deficit spending since the great depression so there is no sign of that stopping either. If you are waiting for the end of deficit spending you will probably be waiting for the rest of your natural life.

I will agree with you on this. The unemployment rate is bad and rising. There are experts who say that will change as spending increases, but I guess we will have to wait and see, but until that starts to turn around there will be no real recovery. However in order for this country to not deficit spend and for the middle class to not credit spend we would have to undergo a major sea change in this country. Maybe you are right, maybe it will be forced upon us with an economic collapse. Short of that I can't imagine it changing.

Since you clearly have zero understanding of economics it is not surprising that the next 4 posters agreed with you... gfy is amazing.

I would not be 100% sure, I honestly think over the next year or two the dollar is going to make one hell of a come back then commercial real estate is going to crash and inflation is also going to kick in from all the debt consumed in such a short time, in 3 to 4 years the economy will fall twice as hard as it is now.

recovering maybe will start in the first 3 months in 2010,that is real time for recovering of Us Economy,After that recovering in Europe and Asia.

on gfy it is always doom and gloom, what with you guys? all got laid off from NPR radio?

you can listen to the experts or you can make your own observations.
i noticed many Europeans are living way over their income, many are using loans for day to day goods including luxury items and vacation trips. so i dont think europe is any where near the bottom..and they have banks faltering every day (not any more us banks are going down)

in the us, home/house prices have (in my area) started to turn and values increased apprx 5% over the summer, i think this is a good sign (yes the interest levels are being kept artificially low, but that has been done since greenshit was in charge of the fed)

consumer debt is down in the us, almost $25b, in my opinion that is a good sign but some economists thinks it is a bad sign, again i say dont trust the experts, make your own observations.
stocks are trading higher, index close to 10K, good or bad sign? who knows.. but i am happy with this recent development and have started investing again.

gasoline/energy prices are somewhat stable.

us unemployment is improving, slowly but surely..

my bottom answer is, yes the us economy is recovering but going slower than many had hoped.

I've felt for a while that the real estate market needs to dip if we are to have long term stability. Right now the average wage in the US is $16 per hour. The average home costs 178K. That means if the average person puts down about 10% on the house and gets a 5.5% fixed rate the house payment alone will take up about 60% of their income and that doesn't include taxes or insurance. So the average person can no longer afford the average home. So what ends up happening is they buy it anyway and other things that they may have paid cash for in the past (cars, vacations, big screen TVs, ect) they now have to use credit to get. Things are fine for them until they lose their job or get sick or hurt then big trouble sets in really quickly.

Until the average home gets back to where the average person can afford to own it, there will always be the risk of real estate crashes.