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NKYKev 03-19-2016 01:09 AM

I find it amusing that people are always wanting to cite national polls when, in reality, they mean almost nothing in an American election. I remember watching TV the night of the last election when one of the commentators showed an electoral map of the US. Basically, the Democrats start off with a 40 electors or so advantage in the Electoral College that the Republicans have to make up, and there are only 10-12 states that are "swing states" that could vote either way, which means the Republicans have to take more of them than the Democrats. In short, unless you happen to live in one of those "swing states" your vote is basically meaningless in the US because so many states are so far to the red or to the blue.

The main point the commentator was making was that, if the Republicans lose the swing states of Ohio and Florida it is basically over for them. That means they need a candidate that can run strong in places filled with moderate and independent voters. That is exactly why Cruz, not Trump, would be the true disaster for Republicans. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Michigan - Cruz places third or worse in swing states among Republicans. Who cares if he gets 90% of the vote in Alabama; he gets destroyed by any Democrat in the swing states that matter. He can't even excite Republicans there, much less anyone else. But this fact is conveniently never stated on Fox News, of course.

Trump, on the other hand, has shown strength in those swing states, and may even put a couple of "Democratic" states like Massachusetts in play because Hillary is not showing a lot of strength in "blue states", she is winning the "red ones" that in the general will likely go to the Republicans. And he is also strong in Southern/traditionally Republican states as well. What no one is saying is that Sanders supporters may be as likely to vote for Trump than Clinton. NAFTA and the Iraq War are serious anchors around Clinton, which is why about half of her party won't support her - which puts her in about the same position as Trump. But Trump might get some of those voters; no Republicans are voting for Clinton.

Trump has a lot of issues and problems, but so does Hillary. There is a lot of anti Obama sentiment out there and if Hillary gets indicted, what then? Even if she doesn't, I am sure that there will be leaks of the evidence found against her and pressure from Republicans to pursue the case. In fact, would they impeach Obama for failing to indict Hillary if the evidence supports it? Something else that is not being talked about much right now, but is a distinct possibility if they feel crimes are being covered up or ignored.

Paul Markham 03-19-2016 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyClips (Post 20783346)
The reason the Republicans lost the last two election is purely based on immigration. Millions upon millions of people from 3rd world countries with low IQs coming to this country and vote Democrat. They're on the dole.

Again, you keep singling Trump out like he is the only person without talking about HILLARY. Why are you so biased and not realize that someone will become President? Do you not think democrats will vote for Trump over her? I see Trump easily taking New York and Michigan. Trump has huge support from many different factions of society and once he sets his sights on Hillary, it'll be over

I didn't know migrants were allowed to vote. Certainly the children of migrants from before 1996 are allowed, and the many of the migrants that were over 40 years old then are on their way to becoming deductors from the system.

You can't see past the reason so many are allowed in, voter numbers aren't the key reason. Wages and property prices are key and that's controlled by the top 5%. Then there's the extra load on the Public Service, more problems need more people to look after them. Then the Liberalisation of many in the Upper Middle class. They see them all as victims who should come to the West to have some of what we have.

Trump won't solve the problem with his Wall. The only way to solve the problem is through benefits, jobs and housing. Remove those from the system for illegal migrants and repatriate those who don't earn enough to contribute.

Paul Markham 03-19-2016 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rochard (Post 20784759)
At some point in time the Republican party will have to stand behind Trump. If Trump does not run as a Republican, the Republican party will loose the race - Trump would take a large percent of Republican voters with him ensuring that both Trump and the Republican nominee will loose.

All Clinton has to do is ask Trump precisely what he intends to do with China exporting so much to the US. Any answer he gives, she can then tell Americans how that's going to raise the cost of living by whatever % he hits Chinese goods with.

And that will hit Trump supporters in the gut, they think Trump is going to give them something. :upsidedow

JohnnyClips - BANNED FOR LIFE 03-19-2016 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markham (Post 20785035)
All Clinton has to do is ask Trump precisely what he intends to do with China exporting so much to the US. Any answer he gives, she can then tell Americans how that's going to raise the cost of living by whatever % he hits Chinese goods with.

And that will hit Trump supporters in the gut, they think Trump is going to give them something. :upsidedow

No they don't Paul, you fucking moron!

Paul Markham 03-20-2016 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyClips (Post 20785149)
No they don't Paul, you fucking moron!

Explain why then.

JohnnyClips - BANNED FOR LIFE 02-20-2017 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markham (Post 20781420)
Trump can't be described as a typical GOP candidate. They have to back him if he wins the Nominee race. All this talk about nominating someone else is hot air.

Can he win, will the two houses back or block him and what happens in the next round of elections?

Clearly people are pissed off with the old style candidates. Do they have the will to vote for candidates who don't have huge war chests of money to spend?

Yes

They won the Presidency, The House and The Senate :1orglaugh

JohnnyClips - BANNED FOR LIFE 02-20-2017 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rochard (Post 20781921)
If you look at the polls.... No, he will not win.

If he looses the nomination (which is possible), he will run his own which pretty much ensures he will not win and the Republican party will not win - Trump would most likely take a large portion of his Republican voters with him.

If Trump wins the nomination he will go against Clinton or Sanders. According to polls, he would loose to either of them.

Of course a lot could change from now until then.

Good call, Rochard :thumbsup

Spot on as usual :1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Robbie 02-20-2017 10:39 AM

Actually the GOP didn't win shit.

Trump is no Republican. He's a New York Democrat who stuck an "R" in front of his name on the ballot to win the Presidency.

He is a total Populist. That's why the establishment Republicans fought him all the way and you still have McCain and Graham trying to hurt him.

Joshua G 02-20-2017 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rochard (Post 20781921)
If you look at the polls.... No, he will not win.

If he looses the nomination (which is possible), he will run his own which pretty much ensures he will not win and the Republican party will not win - Trump would most likely take a large portion of his Republican voters with him.

If Trump wins the nomination he will go against Clinton or Sanders. According to polls, he would loose to either of them.

Of course a lot could change from now until then.

rochard...isn't it great that the internet records the things we say in the past? & then we can weigh them with actual history.

do you still believe polls rochard? i bet you do!

i bet you believe trump has a 40% approval too, because the same lying polls say so.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Joshua G 02-20-2017 03:12 PM

no comment from rochard! wants to forget the things he said before the election.

lets forget rochard said hilarys win, "won't even be close" according to the polls!

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Bladewire 02-20-2017 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbie (Post 21560998)
Actually the GOP didn't win shit.

Trump is no Republican. He's a New York Democrat who stuck an "R" in front of his name on the ballot to win the Presidency.

He is a total Populist. That's why the establishment Republicans fought him all the way and you still have McCain and Graham trying to hurt him.

The GOP is getting all their legislation, appointees, and deregulating EO's through while the clown deflects :thumbsup

So now you're poised to reject Trump when he's taken down saying "he wasn't one of us anyway" :thumbsup

It's good that you're not comfortable with Trump, no sane logical patriot is.

Joshua G 02-20-2017 03:53 PM

rochard! rochard!!!

:1orglaugh

JohnnyClips - BANNED FOR LIFE 02-20-2017 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshua G (Post 21561850)
rochard! rochard!!!

:1orglaugh

too funny :1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Paul Markham 02-21-2017 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbie (Post 21560998)
Actually the GOP didn't win shit.

Trump is no Republican. He's a New York Democrat who stuck an "R" in front of his name on the ballot to win the Presidency.

He is a total Populist. That's why the establishment Republicans fought him all the way and you still have McCain and Graham trying to hurt him.

Some of his policies are going to make the elite poorer. Which is why the establishment is anti him.

JohnnyClips - BANNED FOR LIFE 02-21-2017 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markham (Post 21562639)
Some of his policies are going to make the elite poorer. Which is why the establishment is anti him.

Yup

I wonder if ROCHARD will pop his little head into this thread

Joshua G 02-21-2017 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyClips (Post 21564028)
Yup

I wonder if ROCHARD will pop his little head into this thread

guaranteed he dropped by...then went away.

hey rochard...how long until you talk about trumps approval rating...based on the same failed polls!

:1orglaugh


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