NKYKev |
03-19-2016 01:09 AM |
I find it amusing that people are always wanting to cite national polls when, in reality, they mean almost nothing in an American election. I remember watching TV the night of the last election when one of the commentators showed an electoral map of the US. Basically, the Democrats start off with a 40 electors or so advantage in the Electoral College that the Republicans have to make up, and there are only 10-12 states that are "swing states" that could vote either way, which means the Republicans have to take more of them than the Democrats. In short, unless you happen to live in one of those "swing states" your vote is basically meaningless in the US because so many states are so far to the red or to the blue.
The main point the commentator was making was that, if the Republicans lose the swing states of Ohio and Florida it is basically over for them. That means they need a candidate that can run strong in places filled with moderate and independent voters. That is exactly why Cruz, not Trump, would be the true disaster for Republicans. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Michigan - Cruz places third or worse in swing states among Republicans. Who cares if he gets 90% of the vote in Alabama; he gets destroyed by any Democrat in the swing states that matter. He can't even excite Republicans there, much less anyone else. But this fact is conveniently never stated on Fox News, of course.
Trump, on the other hand, has shown strength in those swing states, and may even put a couple of "Democratic" states like Massachusetts in play because Hillary is not showing a lot of strength in "blue states", she is winning the "red ones" that in the general will likely go to the Republicans. And he is also strong in Southern/traditionally Republican states as well. What no one is saying is that Sanders supporters may be as likely to vote for Trump than Clinton. NAFTA and the Iraq War are serious anchors around Clinton, which is why about half of her party won't support her - which puts her in about the same position as Trump. But Trump might get some of those voters; no Republicans are voting for Clinton.
Trump has a lot of issues and problems, but so does Hillary. There is a lot of anti Obama sentiment out there and if Hillary gets indicted, what then? Even if she doesn't, I am sure that there will be leaks of the evidence found against her and pressure from Republicans to pursue the case. In fact, would they impeach Obama for failing to indict Hillary if the evidence supports it? Something else that is not being talked about much right now, but is a distinct possibility if they feel crimes are being covered up or ignored.
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