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-   -   even more scientific proof: We are alone in the Universe. Drake Equation Solved (https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=1300871)

Bladewire 07-05-2018 06:18 PM

We are not alone

Alien Asians are infiltrating our human races to dominate us with technology.

Two thirds of "humans" on Earth are asian





BaldBastard 07-05-2018 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299635)
if you can't disprove the math, then you need to shutup about the math. you should especially pipe down because you didn't even read the research study that fully explains how the math was applied. they didn't use data points, which you're still clinging to in a desperate attempt to declare the math is invalid while being incapable of providing any math of your own.

But Hunny here we go again.. There is no math other than an equation, and that's been filled with speculative probabilities which is not math, it's guessing.

Like I said, the point of the equation is not to produce a useful value, the point is to show how much we don't know. It's like assigning a number value to infinity

dyna mo 07-05-2018 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBaldBastard (Post 22299651)
But Hunny here we go again.. There is no math other than an equation, and that's been filled with speculative probabilities which is not math, it's guessing.

Like I said, the point of the equation is not to produce a useful value, the point is to show how much we don't know. It's like assigning a number value to infinity

what's weird is how you're acting like you're involved/interested in this topic yet keep revealing you didn't even read the study paper.

the entire paper is about how the more they speculate on the numbers, using valid mathematical structures, the more the math shows we are alone.

that's actually also the funny :1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh part of your posts.

BaldBastard 07-05-2018 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299657)
what's weird is how you're acting like you're involved/interested in this topic yet keep revealing you didn't even read the study paper.

the entire paper is about how the more they speculate on the numbers, using valid mathematical structures, the more the math shows we are alone.

that's actually also the funny :1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh part of your posts.

Oh god... feed the ignorant.

So you change and deflect yourself with every post? Maybe I'm laughing at you due to my prior knowledge of the topic, possibly I'm from New Zealand, possibly my first job was in Tekapo where there's an observatory and possibly my first shared apartment was with 3 astro physicists who worked at that observatory, possibly that was because the 3 story lake house they were in was my uncles, possibly it was the 80's when everyone smoked pot and there was no late night TV and possibly we all sat around every night and debated certain topics that I has absolutely no idea of and possibly after 18 months of that, I vaguely had a grasp of some of it. Possibly currently I specialise in particle systems and in my research search for particle systems info online, I end up in the strangest places...


Could be possible you know I'm not speaking from some article I just read.

Wonders of the universe huh

dyna mo 07-05-2018 08:08 PM

i'm not deflecting from the fact you exclaim the math is baloney yet fail to provide any proof of that which should be incredibly easy for someone like you with your fancy particle systems info online skills and having known a guy that worked at a telescope.

I guess the really funny part is you're still not getting it.

I'll put it another way: the research dissolved Drake's theory. they solved it by proving it invalid with valid math.

it's right there in the paper:

Quote:

We have seen that a Fermi paradox arises if we combine a high and extremely
confident prior for the number of civilizations in our galaxy with the absence
of evidence for their existence. The high confidence that causes this clash typically
results from applying a Drake-like model using point estimates for the
parameters. These estimates, however, make implicit knowledge claims about
processes (especially those connected with the origin of life) which are untenable
given the current state of scientific knowledge.
When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by
probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no
reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe) contains
other civilizations, and thus no longer find our observations in conflict with our
prior probabilities. We found qualitatively similar results through two different
methods: using the authors’ assessments of current scientific knowledge bearing
on key parameters, and using the divergent estimates of these parameters in the
astrobiology literature as a proxy for current scientific uncertainty

BaldBastard 07-06-2018 03:14 AM

So current models are wrong because..

"are untenable given the current state of scientific knowledge."

But their version is right because "assessments of current scientific knowledge"

See I call that baloney, obviously you've found some meaning in it so stick with it. To ME, Drake was always flawed because it presumes a planet can only have one civilization and one life form, where as the only thing factual used in calculating it is.. there's an Planet earth.. that has life. And as we know from this single planet, there can be multiple civilizations over time and even if species are wiped out.. something else pops up, and of course the hibernation thing. Here on earth a 1/4 of animals/plants hibernate in someway, until conditions are right for them.

Phoenix 07-06-2018 05:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299629)
:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

not sure who you're trying to fool but you completely left out any math.

Did you not take statistics in school? the paper reveals that there is proper math that can account for uncertainty and they apply it. It's called statistical analysis.

the scientists behind the research write about this in the paper I linked, perhaps you should try and read it prior to thinking you're capable of discounting it.


:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Someone famous once said this
There are lies, damned lies and Statistics.

I think these are all inconclusive, the Drake equation is just an approximation to model something. It is a great idea, but should not be a measuring stick to apply to an actual proof of anything.

dyna mo 07-06-2018 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBaldBastard (Post 22299712)
So current models are wrong because..

"are untenable given the current state of scientific knowledge."

But their version is right because "assessments of current scientific knowledge"

See I call that baloney, obviously you've found some meaning in it so stick with it. To ME, Drake was always flawed because it presumes a planet can only have one civilization and one life form, where as the only thing factual used in calculating it is.. there's an Planet earth.. that has life. And as we know from this single planet, there can be multiple civilizations over time and even if species are wiped out.. something else pops up, and of course the hibernation thing. Here on earth a 1/4 of animals/plants hibernate in someway, until conditions are right for them.



you did not read it properly. the researchers stated that prior to them the Drake equation variables were points to replace variables, they used current scientific understandings to get past that.

that's actually the easiest part of the paper to read, try to read it again:

"These estimates, however, make implicit knowledge claims about
processes (especially those connected with the origin of life) which are untenable
given the current state of scientific knowledge.
When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by
probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding,"

dyna mo 07-06-2018 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phoenix (Post 22299756)
Someone famous once said this
There are lies, damned lies and Statistics.

I think these are all inconclusive, the Drake equation is just an approximation to model something. It is a great idea, but should not be a measuring stick to apply to an actual proof of anything.

like mrBB, you didn't read the paper. the researchers used math the prove the Drake equation false.

you can't tell me math is as bad as lies when math proved exactly what you said.

and ftr, the guy who said that wasn't a math guy.

SuckOnThis 07-06-2018 08:16 AM

DynaTroll just posts this shit to argue with anyone who questions it, arguing the same line of bullshit over and over all to convince himself he won so he can experience his trollgasm.

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuckOnThis (Post 22299857)
DynaTroll just posts this shit to argue with anyone who questions it, arguing the same line of bullshit over and over all to convince himself he won so he can experience his trollgasm.

you're too full of hate and too dumb to realize that they agree with me.


:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

OneHungLo 07-06-2018 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299859)
you're too full of hate and too dumb to realize that they agree with me.


:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

it should be no surprise his other confirmed nick is Redfred:2 cents:

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneHungLo (Post 22299860)
it should be no surprise his other confirmed nick is Redfred:2 cents:

got it.

suckonthis still has much lingering butthurt from all the times I've rubbed his nose in his own hate fueled dumbness.

SuckOnThis 07-06-2018 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299862)
got it.

suckonthis still has much lingering butthurt from all the times I've rubbed his nose in his own hate fueled dumbness.


Hilarious! I used to rile you up so bad you used to kick holes in your wall. Did you forget??

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

SuckOnThis 07-06-2018 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299859)
you're too full of hate and too dumb to realize that they agree with me.


:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

If you think they're agreeing with you you're even dumber than I ever imagined.

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuckOnThis (Post 22299864)
Hilarious! I used to rile you up so bad you used to kick holes in your wall. Did you forget??

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

exclaims the guy who thinks stars are born simultaneously.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuckOnThis (Post 22299866)
If you think they're agreeing with you you're even dumber than I ever imagined.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

the misunderstanding was due to their not reading the paper and not realizing the researchers used math to prove the equation false.

I'm not surprised you can't figure that out, you think everything in the Universe was created at the same time.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh I'm still laughing at you, my 7 year old niece knows better.

SuckOnThis 07-06-2018 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299869)
exclaims the guy who thinks stars are born simultaneously.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Tell us more about your belief that stars are campfires in the sky for your Gods and how the earth is the center of the universe.

Don't go kicking holes in your wall again, Jesus calms you.

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuckOnThis (Post 22299875)
Tell us more about your belief that stars are campfires in the sky for your Gods and how the earth is the center of the universe.

keeping showing off how lingering butthurt fuels your hate and ignorance.

SuckOnThis 07-06-2018 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299876)
keeping showing off how lingering butthurt fuels your hate and ignorance.


Make another thread about how you have proof that the earth is flat.

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:47 AM

wow, you're struggling to keep up with your hate and dumbness.

keep it going!

SuckOnThis 07-06-2018 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299883)
wow, you're struggling to keep up with your hate and dumbness.

keep it going!

Says the guy who thinks everyone is agreeing with him.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:51 AM

no, I'm glad to know you don't agree with me. that's a relief. when a hate-filled dumb guy agrees with me, I need to reassess my life

your posts just confirm I'm better than you.

SuckOnThis 07-06-2018 08:54 AM

You certainly need to reassess your life, has nothing to do with me.

dyna mo 07-06-2018 08:56 AM

your hate filled ignorance clouds your ability to realize you have no idea who I am or what my life is like.

mikeet 07-07-2018 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MFCT (Post 22298745)
Oh, so I can promote everyone except trans, huh? What are you, some kind of transistor?

Oh? like fuckin no.. promote whatever the fuck you want dicktard and stop chronic worrying about me.. im just here for the stupid shit :pimp

mikeet 07-07-2018 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22299890)
your hate filled ignorance clouds your ability to realize you have no idea who I am or what my life is like.

This makes me feel like im falling over haha:drinkup

PornDiscounts-V 07-07-2018 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by k0nr4d (Post 22298708)
I disagree with many of your points.

Jupiter keeps many large bodies from impacting Earth. Rare.
- Most exoplanets that have been discovered are huge gas giants just like jupiter

The sun is at an optimum distance. Rare.
- Many exoplanets have been discovered that are in the goldilocks zone

Our temperature and atmosphere have been relatively stable for over a billion years. Very rare.
- We can't say if this is rare or not, given that we haven't been able to study another planet outside our solar-system to the extent we have earth.

Multicellular creatures evolved. Very rare.
- Again, we cannot say if this is rare or not.

Earth has one large moon. Rare.
- I don't see how having only 1 moon makes or breaks life. Mars is said to once have been habitable but has several.

Our solar system is on an outer arm of the galaxy. No nearby stars affect us. No galactic phenomena threaten us. Very rare.
- Again, we cannot say how rare and we also cannot say how common "galatic phenomena is" given that there's stuff that might happen once per billion years.

~exactly ;)

ilnjscb 07-08-2018 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PornDiscounts-V (Post 22300718)
~exactly ;)

Nice thoughtful post - a lot of data here for me to work with. See my point by point response to Konrad's earlier post.


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