Are we seeing the beginnings of the proverbial "wall" coming down in the Middle East?
 

This article was contributed to by not one but FIVE reporters, from Paris to Various key points throughout the ME. It reads (to me anyway) like much if not all of the movement is from the younger generations being dissatisfied with the standard of living and way of life being provided by their respective governments, and that we're seeing the faintest early glimpses of what could be "the wall" being toppled.... finally.

Read it, see what you think.

UNREST SPREADS, SOME VIOLENTLY, IN THE MIDDLE EAST
NYTimes.com article from today - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/wo...lines&emc=tha2

From northern Africa to the Persian Gulf, governments appeared to flounder over just how to outrun mostly peaceful movements, spreading erratically like lava erupting from a volcano, with no predictable end.

The protests convulsed half a dozen countries across the Middle East on Wednesday, with tens of thousands of people turning out in Bahrain to challenge the monarchy, a sixth day of running street battles in Yemen, continued strikes over long-suppressed grievances in Egypt and a demonstrator?s funeral in Iran turning into a brief tug of war between the government and its opponents.

Even in heavily policed Libya, pockets of dissent emerged in the main square of Benghazi, with people calling for an end to the 41-year rule of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. Iraq, accustomed to sectarian conflict, got a dose of something new: a fiery protest in the eastern city of Kut over unemployment, sporadic electricity and government corruption. And the protesters in Bahrain were confronted Thursday morning by riot police officers who rushed into the main square in Manama firing tear gas and concussion grenades.

The unrest has been inspired partly by grievances unique to each country, but many shared a new confidence, bred in Egypt and Tunisia, that a new generation could challenge unresponsive authoritarian rule in ways their parents thought impossible.

Leaders fell back on habitual, ineffective formulas. A ban on strikes announced by the week-old military government in Egypt was ignored. The Yemeni president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, called his Bahraini counterpart, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, to commiserate about the region?s falling victim to ?foreign agendas,? according to the state-run Saba news agency.

?There are schemes aimed at plunging the region into chaos and violence targeting the nation?s security and the stability of its countries,? the news agency quoted Mr. Saleh as telling the king.

On one hand, each protest was inspired by a distinctive set of national circumstances and issues ? dire poverty and a lack of jobs,[color=yellow] ethnic and religious differences[/color=yellow], minority rule, corruption, or questions of economic status.

But there was also a pervasive sense that a shared system of poor governance by one party, one family or one clique of military officers backed by brutal secret police was collapsing. A new generation has served notice that the social contract in play in the decades since independence around World War II was no longer valid.

Much of the generation in their 40s and 50s tried to effect change, but first accepted the empty promises of the rulers that change was coming. When it did not, many grew politically apathetic.

The protests are a fire alarm that the promises are not going to work anymore, said Sawsan al-Shaer, a Bahraini columnist. But governments that have stuck around for 20 to 40 years are slow to realize that, she said.

?Now the sons are coming, the new generation, and they are saying, ?I don?t care that my father agreed with you ? I am asking for more, and I am asking for something else,? ? Ms. Shaer said.

Most rulers have surrounded themselves with a tight coterie of advisers and security officers for so long that they believe the advice that just a few young people are knocking around outside and will tire in good time, she said, even after the fall of the presidents in Tunisia and Egypt.

?The rulers don?t realize there is a new generation who want a better job, who want to ask what is happening, where did you spend the money?? Ms. Shaer said. ?My father did not ask. I want to ask.?

The growing population throughout the 3,175-mile zone from Tehran to Tangier, Morocco, has changed too much, analysts believe, for the old systems to work.

?There is a contradiction between educating a lot of your population and creating a white-collar middle class and then ruling with an iron hand,? said Juan R. Cole, a professor of Middle East studies at the University of Michigan.

The continued eruptions present a particular challenge to the United States. It is caught between broadly supporting democracy in the region and tolerating the stability guaranteed by despots, analysts said. In addition, its ability to influence events is particularly limited with foes like Iran.

President Obama?s administration was accused of waffling on Egypt, trying to please the protesters while not really pushing President Hosni Mubarak, a longtime ally of the United States, to leave. It faces a similar dilemma in Bahrain, a crucial base for the United States Navy?s Fifth Fleet.

?For decades, the U.S. sort of prioritized stability over democracy because of oil and Israel,? said Marwan Muasher, a former foreign minister of Jordan who is the head of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ?The current policy is not sustainable,? he said, but changing it toward so many countries at once will be neither easy nor quick.

part 2 next...

Article part 2:

A main problem is the lack of a discernible end to the spreading protests. They could die down if governments engage in serious political changes, analysts said, and if the public is willing to accept gradual change. But old approaches like raising salaries or promising reforms as soon as the marchers disperse will only fuel the protest epidemic.

?Governments can no longer keep claiming they can take their time,? Mr. Muasher said, ?can no longer invoke the need for a homegrown process as an excuse to do nothing.?

In Bahrain, tens of thousands of people, virtually all Shiites, poured into Pearl Square on Wednesday. They demanded changes in a system that they say has discriminated against them for decades on issues like housing, jobs and basic civil rights.

The scene had seemed more like a picnic earlier in the day, complete with deliveries of Kentucky Fried Chicken, but the crowd swelled at night, tying up roads as far as the eye could see and creating a peaceful celebration of empowerment unparalleled for the country?s Shiites, who make up about 70 percent of Bahrain?s 600,000 citizens.

But early Thursday morning, hundreds of riot police officers surrounded the square, firing tear gas containers and concussion grenades at the demonstrators. At least two people died as the officers aggressively emptied the square, according to witnesses at a nearby hospital and news agency reports.

In Egypt, the military government issued its initial estimate of the death toll during the 18 days leading up to Mr. Mubarak?s resignation. At least 365 civilians died, not including police officers and prisoners, said the health minister, Ahmed Sameh Farid.

Despite two warnings in three days from the government to halt protests and strikes, hundreds of airport employees protested inside the terminals at Cairo International Airport for higher wages and health benefits, The Associated Press reported. Flights were not disrupted.

Textile workers also walked out, and a group of 60 women and community groups condemned a panel that was appointed to rewrite the constitution for failing to include a single woman.

In Iran, students were thwarted in their attempt to hold a separate memorial service for Saane Zhaleh, an art student who was killed Monday during the protests, the largest in more than a year. The authorities staged an official funeral for Mr. Zhaleh, saying he was a vigilante, which the opposition called a lie.

But students said they were blocked from attending the official funeral, with Basiji vigilantes overwhelming the campus of the Tehran University of Art. The vigilantes also prevented the fewer than 100 students who had shown up early from staging their own memorial.

?He was one of us, a member of the Green movement, and they stole him from us,? a student who tried to attend the funeral said via an Internet link. She spoke anonymously out of fear for her own safety.

In Yemen, police officers were deployed in large numbers around Sana, the capital, and in Aden and the town of Taiz in an attempt to end street battles.

Students again organized protests at the capital?s central university, calling for Mr. Saleh?s ouster. But there were also clashes between antigovernment and pro-government demonstrators.

In Kut, Iraq, security forces opened fire, killing at least three people, according to a local government official. Protesters then stormed the governor?s headquarters and his house, burning both buildings. At least 27 people were injured, the official said. The protest was the most violent in Iraq since unrest began in the region last month. Until now, there had been several small, scattered demonstrations calling for better government services.

Wednesday?s protests were organized by a group called the Youth of Kut, which wants the governor of the province to step down because it says he has failed to create jobs and increase the supply of electricity. The protesters also say the governor, Latif Hamad al-Tarfa, has stolen money from the government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/wo...lines&emc=tha2

Iran, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, etc, all of them seeing the youth and student populations of the region showing how dissatisfied they are with the way things are, if not outright calling their goverment's performance "piss poor" by their actions.


So does this mean anything? Is it the beginning of real change for the ME, or will these so-called protestors simply be crushed, slapped down, or otherwise put back in their place by the ruling establishment?

All lies?... or a mix of western false hopes & propaganda?

You tell me.

Got to love it
They are getting information now that the government can't control, they have cell phones and the Internet. Freedom is ringing thru their ears, this will be the end of the fighting in the middle east, not some diplomat that will claim they had something to do with it, but despite them!

I'm seeing the making of "unintended consequences".

People who are all excited about the fall of governments do not know
what will replace these governments.

It is only an assumption that the new govs will be better.
We will only know that truth when it arrives.

so what you're saying, is the current Iranian government COULD be replaced by someone worse?

i think the youngin's have had enough of the corruption and i am sure many of them are fed up with their respective religions/religious leaders.

i.e for many decades until the 90's south america had brutal dicators out the ass (propped up by the u.s.-u.k.) and then the dominos fell, and pretty quickly. it's not all great but 100% better than it was for most countries on the continent.

once one regime is toppled the shit spreads like wildfire. people are starving and fed up in the middle east and i think many just want to evolve..

Sadly, yep !

Someone more radical

Iran was replaced before, I think this time will be different because they know what they want,
See last time they wanted CHANGE, LMAO, they didn't get that, so now they want something better, sort of like the democrats did in 2006, look at that mess!

true but its a step in the right direction. if another dictatorship tries to take their place i don't think the people will accept it anymore. once the box has been opened, it can not be closed.

overthrow the pharaohs. surround the outpost of western imperialism.

Are you saying that a new leader in Iran has no potential to start wars?

This is exactly what's going on. In the past, all of us grew up not being fully aware of how the rest of the world lived. When I was a kid and a teen, the only thing I knew about other countries was based on multiple trips to Canada, a single month long trip to Europe, and what I read about in encyclopedias. I just assumed that all countries were similar to what I had seen.

People in the Middle East thought the same - everyone lived like they do. Now they are learning exactly how their lives suck. And they are pissed.

No one likes to be dictated how one should live their life.

who's starting wars in that region?

Yes, exactly.

That would be the normal question when governments fall. :1orglaugh

If this truly is a groundswell movement perpetuated by the youth generation of the ME for better living conditions, better laws and a more civilized lifestyle I'm all for it, as long as it also includes lessening or dropping altogether all the hate their forefathers passed on to them. Spending one's life seething and stewing in hatred for the west, hatred for Israel, hatred for Jews in general, etc, no good can ever come from it, and no real change will stick without it.

If this truly is the youth movement at work and they are hell bent on getting those kinds of changes, then I not only support them but cheer them on.

Of course I'm skeptical, but I'm also hopeful. Any activity like this, particularly in the ME, after all the previous decades of basically a lot of FAIL in the peace department as well as the standard of living department, can only be a good thing. (Here's hoping anyhow)

Education is the real key, most of the people in those regions have none, it's like racisim, as time goes on, there is less of it, why, because we are taught better. Less hate will happen in the world and we will become a better people, at least till someone with a nuke goes crazy!

They will become fine democracies and the US will open normal relations.

Then all of you will bitch about how US companies have out sourced all our jobs
to them.

:1orglaugh



And of course college will be free over there so they will all have degrees
than none of your children have to compete for the job.

This is what happens when the US bribes these governments into doing things their way. All over the world people are starting to see that the US needs to stop meddling in other people's affairs. It's just the Arabs are getting it the worst so they're the first to rise up for democracy and freedom from that US influence (which was a big part of the Egypt uprising).

Don't count on too many people seeing that the uprising is also an uprising
against American influence because people are too busy patting themselves on
the back because they see Arab governments in trouble and think they caused
it because "they want to be like us". But they don't want to be like us.

The delusional American only sees his dreams and not the reality.

well, IF those revolutions (lets call em that) lead to better education they WILL lose hatred ... less religion = less war - and that is a fact :2 cents:

I don't know about the less religion part though. I'm actually quite fine with people being free to believe what they want and teach their kids core values etc. It's misguided religion and using God to justify killing and spouting hatred in their God's name that I take issue with.

So those of you citing more education as a huge part of the solution are 100% spot on.

This ongoing movement likely will eliminate or at the very least significantly weaken the dictatorships in place, but there is no denying the strong Islamic undercurrent that buzzes beneath it.

The focus on change (for them) can turn into quite an interesting development against Western ideology and its proponents.

Fresh headlines in the NY Times today;

• Video: Egypt's Disappeared
  Human rights groups are reporting that illegal detention and torture continue in a post-Mubarak Egypt.
  http://video.nytimes.com/video/2011/...ines&emc=thab1

• Bahrain?s Sunnis Defend Monarchy
  MANAMA, Bahrain ? Not everyone wants democracy, or sympathizes with the popular protests crashing across the Middle East.
  
  Not here, anyway, where the ruling elite protect a way of life for a minority Sunni population that fears and resents the political demands of the Shiite-dominated opposition.
  
  Changing a political system, by necessity, means there will be winners and losers, a reality that has sent a chill through parts of the Sunni community here after days of protest by those seeking to alter the status quo in this small country. Their resistance to change may help explain why the government seems confident that it can retain enough public support to carry out the ruthless suppression of the protests that it began on Thursday.
  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/wo...ines&emc=tha22

• Egyptians Say Military Discourages an Open Economy
  CAIRO ? The Egyptian military defends the country, but it also runs day care centers and beach resorts. Its divisions make television sets, jeeps, washing machines, wooden furniture and olive oil, as well as bottled water under a brand reportedly named after a general?s daughter, Safi.
  
  From this vast web of businesses, the military pays no taxes, employs conscripted labor, buys public land on favorable terms and discloses nothing to Parliament or the public.
  
  Since the ouster last week of President Hosni Mubarak, of course, the military also runs the government. And some scholars, economists and business groups say it has already begun taking steps to protect the privileges of its gated economy, discouraging changes that some argue are crucial if Egypt is to emerge as a more stable, prosperous country.
  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/wo...lines&emc=tha2

• Popular Rage Is Met With Violence in Mideast
  Thousands of Libyan protesters defied threats of violence and arrest in several cities on Thursday, mounting one of the sharpest challenges to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi?s 40-year rule in a ?day of rage? modeled on the uprisings coursing through neighboring countries.
  ....
  But across the Middle East, where brutal social contracts have left millions uneducated, impoverished and alienated, existing battle lines between people and their governments appeared to harden, foreshadowing more confrontations in the days ahead.
  
  In Bahrain, five people were killed and hundreds wounded in a harsh crackdown.
  
  Yemen was shaken by a seventh day of demonstrations demanding the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Protesters chanted ?There is no state!? and lobbed rocks back and forth with pro-government marchers.
  
  In Iran, a leading opposition figure, Mir Hussein Moussavi, was reported missing, raising fears that he had been detained in connection with this week?s anti-government rallies. The marches, the largest since the 2009 disputed elections, were put down by Iranian security and paramilitary forces. The government called for its supporters to rally Friday; the opposition called for another march on Sunday.
  
  In Algeria, where a major protest has been called for Saturday, state television denounced ?foreign interference,? while a prominent political leader, Abdelhamid Mehri, accused the government of not ?responding to the hunger for integrity, liberty, democracy and social justice.?
  
  Even in Tunisia, where protests successfully ousted President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali last month, small groups of protesters continued to gather outside various government ministries in the capital, Tunis, demanding the resignation of the country?s caretaker government and the release of family members from prisons.
  
  In Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak stepped down last week, Suez Canal workers in three major cities joined strikes, deepening the economic strains of the widespread labor unrest.
  
  And in Iraq, protest leaders said they would go ahead with plans for a Saturday march in Baghdad, despite a second day of violence marring demonstrations elsewhere in the country.
  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/wo...ines&emc=tha22

• How to Have Fair Elections in Egypt
  The Egyptian military said on Tuesday that it intends to hand over power within six months to a freely elected government. In preparation for that transition, it convened a diverse panel of jurists to revise the country?s Constitution and urged it to complete its work in 10 days. While that seems unlikely, the members of the panel said they were working quickly toward a plan that would facilitate fair elections.
  http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate...ines&emc=thab1

Is the word spreading like wildfire across the ME? Meaningful changes coming?

...or is this just a case of the media attempting to make it out to be more than what it is by grouping a lot of smaller incidents into the story to make it seem a larger deal than what it is?

You tell me.

If the Jews stopped stealing land that used to be owned by Muslims and the West stops supporting Israel a change might happen. Maybe teaching Jews that Muslims deserve the rights to keep their land might have an effect as well.

Or do you think they will suddenly roll over and smile while Jews steal their land?

2 sides to a debate.

The only change in Egypt so far is a change at the very top, the regime is still in power. Whether an election changes that is yet to be seen. Iran has elections. :Oh crap

One sunny day doesn't make a summer.

I always find it troubling whenever anyone tries to sum up the argument by saying "If the Jews would just stop stealing land". Why does it trouble me? Because it doesn't take into account the over 3,000 year history of this conflict, a history that contains serious disputes over who actually "owns" certain land and who doesn't. Not to mention the hate that has been perpetuated over that 3000 years for wrongs either percieved or factual.

Thus the thread title being formed as a question.

If it is your contention that what we're seeing now, although some of it positive, is going to take a long time if anything meaningful and lasting in the way of change is going to happen, then I'd have to agree with you on that. The ME has been a hate-filled near-war-zone powderkeg filled with terrorism and honor killings and a burgeoning white slave trade for centuries, even through the most recent decades. None of it's going to change in a few days. That is pretty much why I worded the title the way I did, as in "Are we possibly seeing the beginnings of change in the ME?"

Trust me I don't see myself sitting here in 3 or perhaps even 5 years looking at news reports of a completely new ME, one that a decadent evil westerner such as myself could feel free to travel to (and return from) safely. Fact is neither of us may live long enough to see it.

is it good or bad that GFY is my most trusted news source in terms of being "unbiased"?

Still too early to tell. The people that now come into power could be even worse. Time will tell.

Way back in time God told the Jews, they weren't really Israelites then, to take the land from the Canaanites and slaughter and kill them, men, women and children, even the goats and oxen were not to be spared. Well that's the story Moses and subsequent Jews used to justify them taking the land. Which was probably good arable land in those days.
And today the Jews still preach it's their land.

Yes the land has been fought over ever since. It was invaded by the Babylonians and the Jews were taken out into exile, then the Romans, then the Muslims, then the Christians, then the Muslims again, then the British, then the Turks and finally the Jews. Did I miss anyone?

It seems the ownership of the land has been claimed by anyone with the biggest armies. Today that's the Jews. Should the Muslims just give up the fight and go elsewhere?

Would you?

Underlined the most important part. The problems of the ME are far deeper than you're getting on news bulletins. It's a tribal, religious sect and even race split region. Iran had a chance to go Democratic, it didn't and when the vote went against them they rigged the vote and the army backed them. When Iraq had the chance, whether the invasion was right or wrong it's not the point, 100s decided to blow up 1,000s of people in the others sects. Afghanistan is a wonderful example.

Islam is where Christianity was 500 years ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Inquisition

http://www.britannia.com/history/monarchs/mon45.html

People were being killed because of the way they worshiped or for the land they owned. All in the name of God. Even 66 years ago a race was being exterminated because some didn't like them or their ways. In fact if you look at Africa you can see the same picture, tribe against tribe.

Just because you and I live in a relatively civilised country we expect the rest of the world to do the same. Not that simple.

:1orglaugh

No, because the Iron curtain coming down in Eastern Europe was about replacing an evil overbearing state machine with freedom and democracy (of course the suckers just ended up trading in the Soviet Union for the EU socialist superstate). The current wave of protests in the arab world is about replacing relatively secular and westernised regimes with Islamofascist governments who have the support of the vicious, retarded 'arab street' who like nothing better than raping uncovered blonde girls and screaming death to Israel.

The muslim brotherhood of Egypt have a saying : one man, one vote, one time.

So, no, I don't think the comparison is valid, despite what you read in the dipshit liberal media.

Anyone who is carrying on a 3000 year old conflict is a stubborn dumb ass that
needs to be pushed aside and completely disarmed.

:2 cents:

:1orglaugh

Now that's fucking funny!!

Now that's what I call fair and balanced. :1orglaugh


Don't pick any sides now.

The West has a vested interest in the Status Quo. A real Democracy might be the worse outcome.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/en...y-oil-reserves

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/en...oil-production

What if they use their oil to exert power on the West to meet their demands?

Their first demand might be getting US troops off their lands, the second might be stopping the West backing Israel. The third might be a price hike. The fourth might be to abandon the $ as the currency to buy oil.

All voted for by the Democratic choices of the people.

Or would it be best to ignore their democratic wishes and invade them?

Be careful for what you wish for, you might get more than you imagined.

I'd have moved completely out of the region and away to another continent 30 years ago Paul. But then again I have the sense to know and accept the fact that Israel isn't going anywhere. That's a given. So knowing that, I can also deduce that if there is any chance of having peace in the ME then it's a pretty safe bet that Israel's muslim neighbors are going to have do exactly that --- stop the hate and stop the fighting and move on.

The alternative of course is to keep on quibbling and poking and bitching and moaning and throwing rocks at tanks and suicide bombings etc etc etc...., which a lot of people will no doubt defend as the right thing to do. However I'm quite certain this path will lead the world to WWIII eventually. Yes, yes it's best for them to keep up "the fight" over those few strips of land. Good plan.

Did the "wall come down" in Iran in 1979 --or was in strengthened?

Is Muslim totalitarianism better than an autocracy?

Plenty of people did move from the area, now please explain which country in the
world has the desire or resources to take in all the rest of the people.

Nobody.

It's not like we are talking about wealthy people who can get a permanent visa
in any country they choose. These people actually have no place to go.

And if these people should leave because of the conflict then why does it not make
sense also for Jews to quit moving there?

All of your solutions are pro Jew, pro Jew and pro Jew. You have not even one tiny
little thing in concept that is pro Palestinian.
This is the problem. Two different sides can't accept one sided solutions.

No my friend. My one single solution is pro peace.