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02-24-2017, 03:05 PM | #51 |
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i ask you a question: what would you do if you are a multibillion dollar chinese who want to make more out of your money. The economy and interest rate is low and the worldwide markets are too regulated to make the fast cash. Now suddenly a country loosens its rules. You as a clever businessman knows that this will have a short winding up before the crash comes. So you will pump a lot of shortterm capital into this market, what will be followed by A. The markets are exploding and giant wins are possible in a short time B. The currency of this country gains in value because the investment has to be made in dollars and thus the dollar demand rises. Both have happened. The markets are being pumped out with foreign money, and these profits WILL GO BACK INTO THE COUNTROIES THEY CAME FROM, because by the rise of the dollar the US economy will be even less able to export and the order situation will be worse - the company profits go down and the shares fall. if you would have asked me before I would tell you EXACTLY that. what you also not have in mind is that a crash on the stock markets poors only the majority, the middleclass. infact there is NEVER a lost in stockmarkets because the money can not fly away - it is only in OTHER hands. with the last crash the multi billionairs of this world doubled up their capital. BECAUSE a crash makes THEM RICH! Quote:
so the WORST for an economy are the real rich people because they have too much to spend it and they will NEVER spend it there where they smuggled it around the fiscal hand. the ONLY way to get this money back is a global economy where money rotates around the planet - no matter where it was originally made and where it is gone after. Quote:
it is not a question how much money you have in your hand. the question is how much you can buy with it. if your idea would be correct, how could it make sense to "sanction countries" by cutting them from the global markets? that deos not make sense. so in fact trump wants to make america again with methods what he use as sanctions to others. is that stupid or not ? Quote:
if you see media work as kind of "fairplay" and ask 1 of each group, this is dangerous bacuse everyone can pick out the most comfortable answer for him. and the ost comfortabe is mostly not the true one. infact media have to research where the mass of positions is because that gives the best possible chance to be correct. in usa you have one very good example about the environment. that topic wand handled (and still is) in a "balanced reporting" so when 1000 said we have a problem and one said we do not, the took one of each group - waht made the problem only to a 50% possible one. meanwhile the whole world know about the urgency of this problem - exept the americans. Quote:
donīt tell me that it is secured by gold, because fist of all NOBODY have seen the gold in fort knox since 40 or 50 years second of all gold price not offered and demand (are you surprised now?) In the past 50 years have 4 people from 4 banks each day telephoned each other and arranged the day's gold price in a casual chat. a few years ago Deutsche Bank left this group on own wish because it went too hot even for this globally operating large-scale criminals. the point is that NOBODY speak about the circuimstance that US have far overdued their creditcard limits. no - i do not only mean the people. the COUNTRY !!! your biggest borrower is china. and BECAUSE trump is famous for bringing people who have lend him money to court and declare them to enemies, he is so fucking dangerous. That is not an issue of his own hawker's tray whose downfall economically would not be noticed at any point in the world exept in US. Here he is dealing with countries, BIG COUNTRIES which must not submit to a corrupted judgment. be wise and do not listen alone to what your media say (no matter if left or right) listen to what the majority of the planet say. With the position of MAJORITY you have a better chance to hear the truth. |
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02-24-2017, 04:33 PM | #53 | |
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02-24-2017, 05:13 PM | #54 | |
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Same can be said for the passengers because having them strapped in place, means they will not be flying around inside the car affecting the drivers ability to get back control in-case of a spin for instance. It's not just about saving your life but also saving others sharing the road with you. |
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02-24-2017, 05:56 PM | #55 |
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It's not the politicians that shipped jobs overseas, it is the corporations and those jobs are never coming back to this country. If a company that used to pay an American $30 an hour to manufacture something can now open a factory in Mexico or China and pay that worker $1 dollar an hour, what makes you think they will come back here? No amount of tariffs or penalties will be enough to offset that difference. So that is never going to happen. What people do not understand or do not want to understand is the US is morphing into a service economy. The future is service not manufacturing. Adapt or die. What do you think is going to happen when we have driver-less cars? No more delivery men, Uber drivers, taxi drivers. Robotics has slowly been replacing workers in manufacturing for years and more robots are coming. Education is the key here. The Germans, Koreans, Chinese and others are way ahead of us in education, without improving our education system, they will be the ones we will be servicing. An isolationist policy will only hurt us and strengthen other countries. Get rid of free trade? To what advantage? The world is changing and if you think this current administration is going to bring jobs back to America, don't hold your breath. That's just tRump, it is not the Republican way.
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02-24-2017, 06:07 PM | #56 | |
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02-24-2017, 06:50 PM | #57 | |
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I've heard the doom and gloom argument for years about automation. Same argument the unions were screaming about since the 1950's with car manufacturers. But again...PEOPLE are still making things. And the plants and factories where they are making them have moved from the U.S. to other countries. Today Trump put out the plan of lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 down to 15 to 20% Imagine if you are a giant corporation making a billion dollars a year in profit. That tax cut saves you from $150 to $200 MILLION dollars a year! And Trump is telling them that if they bring their plants and jobs BACK to the U.S., then they are gold. If they don't? He is going to put a border tax on their ass that will negate the savings from the corporate tax. He is making the U.S. THE place to build your factories and jobs. What is wrong with that? Is automation a factor? Yeah...it has been for the last 60 to 70 years. So what? There are still MILLIONS of jobs in this world that American companies have outsourced to other countries. If Trump's economic policies can bring those back...that my friend is a very, very good thing. |
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02-24-2017, 06:51 PM | #58 |
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Shareholder supremacy...Get used to it LOL
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02-24-2017, 06:54 PM | #59 | |
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Sell them thru Walgreen , CVS, etc.... To Mineistaken: take care of your slovakia problem ,,,, |
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02-24-2017, 07:07 PM | #60 |
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02-24-2017, 07:10 PM | #61 |
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02-24-2017, 07:43 PM | #62 | |
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Properly done, a tariff and tax breaks could help keep jobs in the US and maybe even bring some back, but I still think it is ultimately not going to matter. I think it is a short term fix. We have the technology now and automation is expanding rapidly. I won't be shocked to see large numbers of jobs disappearing over the next 10 years to automation. Self driving cars along could wipe out an entire industry. |
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02-24-2017, 08:14 PM | #63 | |
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02-24-2017, 08:16 PM | #64 | |
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02-24-2017, 09:02 PM | #65 |
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What are we looking at here? Maybe 365 million people in this country? How many factories of any kind do you see employing let's say just 20 million? Remember that business about bringing back those coal mining jobs? There are about 60,000 coal miners out of work. Not even statistically significant compared to our total population. More smoke and mirrors. Nothing is going to happen that will make any kind of difference at all. You need to brace yourself for reality.
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02-25-2017, 03:07 AM | #66 | |
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02-25-2017, 09:19 AM | #67 | |
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i will just give you small math example on that. lets say you have 1000 workers who have a job in us in 10 companies. everyone of them makes 3000 dollar per month and with this 3000 dollar they can buy the stuff what is made in us from us workers with us standard wage. lets just do so as every product he buys cost 300 dollars - that means that everyone of them is able to buy 10 pieces of that every month. that is what a local market is - it will be FOREVER like this because there is no additional income as what people can spend. people will always have the same money and can buy 10 products forever and ever. now we come to the point of global market. here is not one who can produce the same product for 100 instead of 300 and it will be sold in us for 150. in the same moment the 1000 workers are able to buy 11 products for their money and prosperty gains. BUT yes there are now some jobs in danger what have to be balanced somehow. the jobs what are in danger are NOT 100 (because the factory what produce this product have to close)!!!!! why ? because in this example the company sold 1000 products for 300 each month with this 100 workers - means they had a gross income of 3000 per worker because the additional gross income (50 dollars per product imported) already produced new jobs. 1000x50= 50000/3000= 16,6 jobs created through the import. now we need a job for the other 85 and this can be done in several ways: 1. way is to make an OWN EXPORTINDUSTRY and produce something that is better or cheaper as in other countries. if you do that really good and with a worldwide market (what is than 1000 times bigger as this example 1000 worker market - you are able to even create MORE jobs as you have workers for. the 85 left workers are not able to do it so you need IMMIGRANTS. this immigrant will not only do the job - they will also spend their money in the country - money what in fact is NOT AMERICAN money because it comes from EXPORTS so this workers get not paid from America they get paid from offshore. even on this small example with fictive numbers you can see the advantage of a global market. because even when we just expand that to the left 85 workers (and NO immigrants) WHAT will be different to the start situation? the different is PROSPERITY!!!!! because every one of the workers can afford to buy 11 instead of 10 products. but if you INCLUDE the immigrants the count is WAYS better. THIS is a global market and it can work always and even better because of the fact that countries can even loan money to each other. they loan it when the currency is too strong and they let them pay back when the currency went into other direction. no bank is needed for that - no financial service what sticks a lot in their pockets - that is just a question of GLOBAL TRUST (what is the USA right now losing in a broad range). if people would be able to understand how global market works, they would NEVER vote for trump because "USA first" and "being partner with the world" is the same as when somebody buys Walmart, close the doors and say - from now on we do not want to have them from outside we do all alone. what this guy tries to hoax America is not only unlogic and against all market rules - it is a lie because nobody can tell me that he have NOT ONE around him who knows about those simple and logical facts and rules he is either a liar or the most unprofessional person who ever have entered the oval office. |
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02-25-2017, 10:27 AM | #68 | |
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02-25-2017, 11:59 AM | #69 | |
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Also...my thinking is: what is the logic of the Federal Govt. having trade, tax, and regulations policy's that FORCE companys to leave the U.S. with those same jobs? Just think of all the people who have lost their jobs since the 1990's? MILLIONS. That's over 20 years of jobs that those people could have had. The doom and gloom scenario of everybody losing their jobs to automation is only part of the big picture. The crooked politicians and bureaucrats in Washington D.C. cut those deals that sent actual HUMAN jobs overseas, to enrich THEMSELVES. Ever notice how the lifetime career/bureaucrat's jobs never get "automated" or outsourced. lol There is a reason that bureaucrats in Washington D.C. somehow get filthy rich...even though their salaries don't reflect it. I'm tired of listening to the "experts". I'm old enough to have agreed with Ross Perot when he said NAFTA would cause a "giant sucking sound" of our jobs leaving the country. He was 100% right. And all the politicians and "experts" KNEW that. But they lied to all of us to enrich themselves and their cronies who funnel money to them. I say this: We've been lied to for decades now. And every new trade deal (like NAFTA for instance) was supposed to make things "better" for all of us. Remember? Except it never does. And the anti-Trump people seem to be arguing in favor of continuing to do the same old thing. Isn't that the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result? I believe it's time for a change. And I think that Trump is correct. I know that many of you don't think so. And I know we are all just talking on a porn forum so it doesn't matter. But I am optimistic about the future. I only hope that Trump can navigate all the political land mines that the Democrats and Republican establishment have laid out to stop him. They are scared to death to lose their gravy train. |
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02-25-2017, 12:03 PM | #70 | |
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02-25-2017, 12:09 PM | #71 | |
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to understand economy and markets is a very complicated thing. i always thought before that americans have more clue about economics as the rest of the world especially because they had to go for their old-age-provision a risky private way. but what i see, hear and read makes me think opposite meanwhile. I give you an example: In USA it was allowed to sell you a live insureance with a promis that you will get 500.000 out after you paid 100.000 in that was in fact true, but 500.000 BEFORE reducing provisions of up to 60% !!!!! they where even able to debit this provisions to your insurance account year by year and take them off at the end PLUS INTEREST for all this time. that was one of the things obama has regulated because it is fooling. now trump canceled it and so called "financial services" are free to fool the people again. but HOW can people ever understand that when their only knowledge is founded on how to clean a smith&wesson ? |
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02-25-2017, 12:17 PM | #72 | ||
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well, you do not get the economic fact correct but you have the corruption fact correctly interpreted. so at least this part I would sign in when you just change this sentence : Quote:
But I am optimistic about the future. I only hope that SOMEONE SMART AND INCORRUPT can navigate all the political land mines that the Democrats and Republican establishment have laid out to stop him. because from all that you said about corruption and using the power for own profits you have chosen the THE MASTER OF DESTASTER with trump. |
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02-25-2017, 12:20 PM | #73 | |
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His projected corporate tax savings gave him reason to use that newly free collateral to start a new business. Been getting a nice chunk of change deposited weekly in my bank account from that deal since Jan. 6th. Meanwhile the Stock Market has reached new records since the day that Trump was elected and $2.9 trillion dollars in new wealth has already been created just from that. Interest rates will probably continue to rise. The Obama Administration had the Fed keep them at unnatural low rates in order to keep the economy from completely sinking. It was the only way for him to do it with his anti-biz policies. As for YOU personally seeing anything...I can't tell you. I have no idea if you have ever made any real money, or have any good business sense, or good work ethic. I only know you from GFY. You seem like a nice guy. But I don't know you well enough to know if you kick ass in making money. I only know that while a lot of snowflakes have been crying the blues...I'm moving forward and turning my own personal financial ship around. Less taxes...the end of ObamaCare? Yes. Both of those things benefit my family. |
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02-25-2017, 12:23 PM | #74 | |
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And I know that you have formed your thoughts based on your own life experience and education. So have I. And I am going to have to go with MY thoughts on it. Going with what I think has been very successful for me in my career. So, with no disrespect...I'm gonna continue to come to my own conclusions. |
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02-25-2017, 12:34 PM | #75 | |
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especially look in the purple field WHAT shares came up and wich one have lost. so THERE ARE indeed smart people who understand how that works and what will be on next. if you just think about the losers and the profiteurs in that rally you can see the future of how America is when it is "great again" |
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02-25-2017, 01:39 PM | #76 | ||
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this is not my opinion - these are RULES what you learn when you study economy.
and sure - a part of this rules are just school knowledge what are practically not working. but after more than 40 years practical experience I know the difference between theory and practice. Quote:
you can compare that with someone who receives a bad meal in a restaurant he is correct when he says it is bad - but only a cook can say WHY it was bad and WHAT went wrong. Quote:
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02-25-2017, 01:54 PM | #77 |
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02-25-2017, 02:10 PM | #78 | |
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I think we need to embrace the future and understand what automation is going to do to our society. We are on the precipice of having a society where all menial labor and low-paying jobs are done through automation. It's not too far off that we will have a society where there simply may not be enough jobs for everyone who wants a job. To me, the way to go is to not fight these fights with tariffs and taxes and trade deals, but to look forward and try to determine what skills will be in demand once automation takes hold. We should be focusing on helping people get the training and knowledge they will need to in order to have one of those jobs. I understand when you are out of work and need money the idea of a good paying job you can get with little or no education or experience is very inviting. I have been there myself and had those jobs. I just think those jobs are on the endangered species list and it is time for us to look forward and determine how we are going to deal with that future when it happens as opposed to trying to bring back yesterday and trying to make things as they once were. |
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02-25-2017, 02:38 PM | #79 |
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Once again, the 800 lb gorilla in the room. If you want different politicians rather than the same bunch year after year, we need term limits for Congress and the House of Representatives. You are not going to get anything different from the tRump administration. They are only interested in dismantling the government with the benefit going to the wealthy. By the time most of you realize this it will be too late. Say Hello to the new boss, Same as the old boss.
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02-25-2017, 02:56 PM | #80 | |
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02-25-2017, 05:50 PM | #81 |
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I think this chart says it all. American workers are not productive.
You get more production value for your dollar in China and Mexico. Further automation and robotizing of production is the only way to regain lost market shares. Obviously, automation and robotizing will create new hi-tech jobs. In the long run, low labor wage countries are doomed as they will lose much of their export market. The low skilled American worker will not be invited to the party. I have no idea what we will do with all these surplus people -- don't be one of the disposables |
02-25-2017, 06:56 PM | #82 |
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half of all human beings are not able to do a high skill job...but they can vote...robotization to stay competitive is not an option because it only benefits a few but hurts many so its only a matter of time before it is voted illegal by even the high skilled let alone the low skilled...
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02-25-2017, 07:09 PM | #83 | |
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Also something you haven't considered is highly intelligent, high net worth, robots hiring humans to do work they don't trust other competitive robots to do |
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02-25-2017, 07:11 PM | #84 | |
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02-25-2017, 07:16 PM | #85 | |
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Unfortunately, we're not talking about medicine or law since those are BEING AUTOMATED as we speak. The future is probably going to involve a guaranteed minimum income for all residents of the US
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02-25-2017, 09:20 PM | #86 |
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Plastics.
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02-26-2017, 11:46 AM | #87 | |
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The Federal Govt. has been helping to ship those jobs overseas through policy, taxes, and regulations and trade deals for almost 30 years now. Bringing them back would be "new". As for being replaced by robots...again, I've heard that my entire life. And it's been the line we've been fed ever since NAFTA. And yet...somehow...those jobs are STILL being done by humans 30 years later. Only it's not Americans doing it anymore. Think about that a second. And yeah, I know...technology has advanced. Same thing they said in 1990 as well. Technology ALWAYS advances. And automation is always happening. Doesn't mean we can't bring back millions of jobs that are still being done by human beings. What you're saying is kind of like: "Well, we're all gonna die someday...so no use waiting around for it...might as well commit suicide" And that's what the Federal Govt. trade deals, tax laws, and regulations over the last few decades have amounted to: The country killing itself. It's senseless to me. |
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02-26-2017, 02:49 PM | #88 | |
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In my opinion, Trump's promises to bring back jobs and manufacturing to the US is a big house of cards that is going to eventually collapse under the weight of automation. I don't know when it will happen, but I think we will start to see major shifts towards automation in many areas in the next 10 years. I don't have a problem with trying to bring back good jobs, but I would also like to see us preparing for the inevitable. I know you think it may never happen or won't happen on such a scale it will cease human manufacturing and I will agree that there will always be a need for people in those factories. I just think we are not too far off from having factories that run with a handful of employees as opposed to hundreds or even thousands. I feel we would be better suited to try to prepare for the future than to try to simply placate them with jobs that may not last very long. I agree that NAFTA sucks and I think we can do some things to bolster our economy and having new jobs isn't a bad thing. I just feel that we are at a time in history when we are about to undergo a sea change in our economy and we would be best served to look to the future and try to prepare for it as best we can. |
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02-26-2017, 03:28 PM | #89 |
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Here is an interesting article.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/debrabo.../#35765b053fa9 It says that projections show by 2020 the legal pot industry will create more jobs in America than the government, utilities companies or manufacturing. The article says they actually expect a decline in manufacturing jobs of about 800K while the pot industry will create about 250K jobs. Of course, the manufacturing part of that could chance depending on what Trump does. |
02-26-2017, 08:03 PM | #90 |
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Kane, why can't we bring back the jobs AND prepare for the future at the same time?
Kinds hard for people to transition into new skills when they are living off foodstamps and going to the doctor with govt. subsidized health insurance. People need to be able to live with dignity and pride to be able to achieve at high levels. In my opinion, that is where the Democrat Party jumped the shark. Having everyone so dependent on govt. takes that away from people. |
02-26-2017, 08:45 PM | #91 |
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I don't think you can bring back a job of let's say a woman sewing shoes together for Nike in Bangladesh for $1 per day.
even when you set their tax rate to 0% - which is what they probably pay already right now now you could tax them with 35% - which makes a $100 pair cost $135 - but do Americans really have a homemade alternative with the same "coolness" factor or would they rather still buy Nike? Let's say Nike decides to bring back a part of their production back to the US to circumvent the border tax - does anyone think 100 Bangladeshi women would be replaced with 100 Americans? Or would Nike invest in automation - which is too expensive to replace $1 workers in Bangladesh but in the US... And what about the rest of the world that does not charge a 35% border tax and still pays only $100 for the pair - would American consumer just accept that? Or what happens when the EU, China etc say: fuck that, now we charge 35% on everything made by Americans. (and we do have alternatives for almost everything America sells) Another example: Right now Boeing and Airbus compete head to head - countries like China are their biggest markets. Now imagine suddenly Boeing becomes 35% more expensive cause China is pissed and puts up a border tax in return. I hear the champagne popping at Airbus headquarters already. it's too late, nobody is going to bring any jobs back to any places that multiply productions costs - because the world has developed and you have more than 4-5 civilized nations you can sell to. If the US market shrinks due to higher sales prices because of border tax, many companies will be able to gain market share in other markets to compansate that cause their american competition will get taxed out of those markets. So basically: The rest of the world shrugs their shoulders and the US will end up with the same or less amount of jobs and $1 dollar shops being renamed to $5 dollar shops.
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02-26-2017, 09:55 PM | #92 |
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You do realize that China already does that?
It's known as China's "Tariff Wall" Trump is right. We have allowed politicians with no business sense to make bad trade deals for decades. I'm going to believe what I personally think and what the movers and shakers of the business world think. You might want to consider that in your analysis. The so-called experts who have formed policy for our nation for the past few decades have been the cause of our economy floundering. They have no record of success at all. Why would you still believe their flawed theories? |
02-26-2017, 10:28 PM | #93 | |
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Why is it that Trump is the one stepping up to the plate with ideas and policy that seeks to end companies running sweat shops overseas with child labor? Shouldn't all these protestors be protesting against NIKE instead? And shouldn't they have been doing that for years now? And shouldn't Pres. Obama have taken some kind of action during his 8 years in office? Trump is the only one who has had the balls to stand up and try to do something...and the so-called 'left' does nothing but forecast doom and gloom and negativity and proclaim that NOTHING can be done. This is the hypocrisy that I see. "Black Lives Matter" people screaming about Trump while they wear their Nike tennis shoes made by 6 year old child slave labor in Pakistan. PURE hypocrisy. |
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02-26-2017, 10:40 PM | #94 | |
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I will agree 100% with you that the Democrats have fully jumped the shark on this. It wasn't too long ago that they were the party of the blue collar worker, fighting for higher pay, better benefits, and better jobs. Now they are the party of the political incorrectness. |
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02-26-2017, 11:43 PM | #95 | |
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When the tax cuts are said and done and tRump is ready to build the wall and increase our nuclear stockpile, where do you think the funds are going to come from? It won't be the rich people will it? It will be the middle and lower class. Suddenly the deficit talk has vanished from discussion. And manufacturing is not coming back in any significant form. Automation is not going to be a economic factor in the US future any time soon. We are becoming a service economy. If we don't adapt we will die.
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02-26-2017, 11:56 PM | #96 |
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ruff, that's your view of things.
The people that President Trump put in his cabinet are EXACTLY the people he promised in his campaign. He plainly said that he knew the best people in the world. If you think that a group of billionaires and Generals are lobbyists...then you need to educate yourself. Those billionaires are the people who PAY lobbyists. lol Trump said what he was going to do. He said over and over in the campaign who he was going to pick for his cabinet and where he was going to pick them from. I am more than happy that he has very successful people who are leaders in the world as opposed to just another group of politician/lawyers. We've seen what the "old way" of doing things has gotten us: 20 Trillion in debt, good jobs gone, and endless wars. I know that you don't want more of the same old thing. How could you? |
02-27-2017, 12:05 AM | #97 | |
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They were talking on the news programs about how they needed to get back to being the champion of the WORKING man. But the last few weeks...it seems like they have went into denial and have convinced themselves that they didn't really lose...it was the Russians, or it was Hillary, or it was horrible redneck racists voting massively... Huge mistake. And now that they have convinced themselves of that, they are headed right back down that road of special interest groups (like the bathrooms in N.C. and other subjects that a person working hard to feed their families see as a waste of time). Democrat politicians are ready to fight to the death about transgender bathrooms. Meanwhile the steelworkers in Pittsburgh and auto workers in Detroit just roll their eyes and wonder how in the hell the Democrat Party is being fronted by an old woman who looks like a librarian shrew (Warren), an old curmudgeon socialist (Sanders) and Chuck Schumer and the new DNC chair Perez. None of that cast of characters is addressing the working man. They are all about "resisting" Trump's policies that could actually HELP the working man. And all they talk about are subjects that only interest small groups with specific issues. As I said before...those real working men and women look at these Democrat Party Leaders and they might as well be from Mars. And the ILLEGAL immigrant situation? They seem to care more about people who aren't citizens than actual citizens. It's almost as if the Democrat Party is the party of the NON-Working man. I'm afraid the Democrat Party is gonna have to sink even further before they learn their lesson. |
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02-27-2017, 05:38 AM | #98 | |
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but the consumer rather beat each other up over a limited edition for twice the price and the stock market celebrates them for their profit - which would clearly suffer if they moved their production away from the sweat shops.
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02-27-2017, 06:41 AM | #99 |
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Trump will pick up NV, NH and VA in the next election but lose by more in the popular vote because ALL the resistance is only coming from CA and NY
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02-27-2017, 07:02 AM | #100 | |
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you guys simply do not have the minds for global markets to see this logic. i can tell you already WHEN his day is here. there are a few "obama-things" more what the republicans want to get rid off and they will let trump do it because they know already, that they will need one at the end they can blame for that. after that is done (what will be possibly before autumn) they will kick him out with the help of the democrats. before the end of THIS YEAR the era trump is over. remember that sentence when that day comes. |
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