Dear all 'Conspiracy Theorists': The Final Thread.

[Dollarmansteve]

JFK, 9/11, Moon landing - whatever your pleasure, please read below. They are not my words (reference included) and they are not about conspiracy theory type beliefs, but if you can put your ego aside for the 2 minutes it takes to read below and try to understand how your brain works.. you might just learn something.

Here are 10 reasons why, if you hold conspiracy-style beliefs close to your heart, you are probably insane.. or at least ignorant of your own cognitive shortcomings:

1. Availability bias, which causes us to base decisions on information that is more readily available in our memories, rather than the data we really need;

2. Hindsight bias, which causes us to attach higher probabilities to events after they have happened (ex post) than we did before they happened (ex ante);

3. The problem of induction, which leads us to formulate general rules on the basis of insufficient information;

4. The fallacy of conjunction (or disjunction), which means we tend to overestimate the probability that seven events of 90% probability will all occur, while underestimating the probability that at least one of seven events of 10% probability will occur;

5. Confirmation bias, which inclines us to look for confirming evidence of an initial hypothesis, rather than falsifying evidence that would disprove it;

6. Contamination effects, whereby we allow irrelevant but proximate information to influence a decision;

7. The affect heuristic, whereby preconceived value-judgments interfere with our assessments of costs and benefits;

8. Scope neglect, which prevents us from proportionately adjusting what we should be willing to sacrifice to avoid harms of different orders of magnitude;

9. Overconfidence in calibration, which leads us to underestimate the confidence intervals within which our estimates will be robust (e.g. to conflate the 'best case' scenario with the 'most probable'); and

10. Bystander apathy, which inclines us to abdicate individual responsibility when in a crowd.

-Niall Ferguson, The Ascent of Money [based on Eliezer Yudkowsky, 'Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks', in Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (eds), Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford University Press, 2008)]

if you:

a) cant understand the above
or
b) refute the above

Please understand you are a lost cause.

[MetaMan]

Shut the fuck up!

[BestXXXPorn]

But wait...

These are the same reasons to believe conspiracy theories... Most of them revolve around the fact that the items in that list are heavily relied upon during the investigation process...

This proves nothing on either side.

[CarlosTheGaucho]

I've read Niall's Ferguson's book about the "US Empire"

Enjoyed that

[epitome]

What's scary are the people that refuse to question their government when the founding fathers warned that we must always do just that.

Failure to find WMD's in Iraq is a great recent example. The fact that an administration would blow the cover on a secret agent over her husbands outing them is another.

[dyna mo]

a typical conspiracy theorist won't understand a single word of that.

[marcop]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

a typical conspiracy theorist won't understand a single word of that.

So true...

[D Ghost]

What about Bush's famous "Iraq has Weapons Of Mass Destruction." conspiracy theory.

But we already knew he was insane.

That is not why they went to Iraq, it was a long time coming after they put Saddam in power.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by DJ The Kid

What about Bush's famous Weapons Of Mass Destruction conspiracy theory.

That is not why they went there and you now it, it was a long time coming after they put Saddam in power.

exhibit A

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

a typical conspiracy theorist won't understand a single word of that.

[PornoStar69]

2Pac - Changes

"Changes"

[1]
Come on come on
I see no changes wake up in the morning and I ask myself
is life worth living should I blast myself?
I'm tired of bein' poor & even worse I'm black
my stomach hurts so I'm lookin' for a purse to snatch
Cops give a damn about a negro
pull the trigger kill a nigga he's a hero
Give the crack to the kids who the hell cares
one less hungry mouth on the welfare
First ship 'em dope & let 'em deal the brothers
give 'em guns step back watch 'em kill each other
It's time to fight back that's what Huey said
2 shots in the dark now Huey's dead
I got love for my brother but we can never go nowhere
unless we share with each other
We gotta start makin' changes
learn to see me as a brother instead of 2 distant strangers
and that's how it's supposed to be
How can the Devil take a brother if he's close to me?
I'd love to go back to when we played as kids
but things changed, and that's the way it is

[Bridge w/ changing ad libs]
Come on come on
That's just the way it is
Things'll never be the same
That's just the way it is
aww yeah
[Repeat]

[2]
I see no changes all I see is racist faces
misplaced hate makes disgrace to races
We under I wonder what it takes to make this
one better place, let's erase the wasted
Take the evil out the people they'll be acting right
'cause both black and white is smokin' crack tonight
and only time we chill is when we kill each other
it takes skill to be real, time to heal each other
And although it seems heaven sent
We ain't ready, to see a black President, uhh
It ain't a secret don't conceal the fact
the penitentiary's packed, and it's filled with blacks
But some things will never change
try to show another way but you stayin' in the dope game
Now tell me what's a mother to do
bein' real don't appeal to the brother in you
You gotta operate the easy way
"I made a G today" But you made it in a sleazy way
sellin' crack to the kid. " I gotta get paid,"
Well hey, well that's the way it is

[Bridge]

[Talking:]
We gotta make a change...
It's time for us as a people to start makin' some changes.
Let's change the way we eat, let's change the way we live
and let's change the way we treat each other.
You see the old way wasn't working so it's on us to do
what we gotta do, to survive.

[3]
And still I see no changes can't a brother get a little peace
It's war on the streets & the war in the Middle East
Instead of war on poverty they got a war on drugs
so the police can bother me
And I ain't never did a crime I ain't have to do
But now I'm back with the facts givin' it back to you
Don't let 'em jack you up, back you up,
crack you up and pimp smack you up
You gotta learn to hold ya own
they get jealous when they see ya with ya mobile phone
But tell the cops they can't touch this
I don't trust this when they try to rush I bust this
That's the sound of my tool you say it ain't cool
my mama didn't raise no fool
And as long as I stay black I gotta stay strapped
& I never get to lay back
'Cause I always got to worry 'bout the pay backs
some punk that I roughed up way back
comin' back after all these years
rat-tat-tat-tat-tat that's the way it is uhh

[Bridge 'til fade:]
Some things will never change

[PornoStar69]

Michael Jackson - They Dont Care About Us

Sikinhead, deadhead
Everybody gone bad
Situation aggravation
Everybody allegation
in the suite, on the news
everybody dogfood
Bang bang shock dead
Everybodys gone bad
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us

Beat me, hate me
You can never break me
Will me, thrill me
You can never kill me
Chew me, sue me
Everybody do me
Kick me hike me
Dont you black or
white me!
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us

Tell me what has
become of my life
I have a wife and two
childre who love me
I am the victim of police
brutality, now
Im tired of bein the
of hate, youre rapin
me of my pride
Oh for Gods sake
i look to heaven to ful-
fill its prophecy...
Set me free
Skinhead, deadhead
Everybody gone bad
Trepidation, speculation
Ecerybody allagation
In the suite on the news
Everyboda dogfood

Black man black male
Throw the brother
in jail

All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us

Tell me what has become
of my rights

Am I ivisible cause you
ignore me?
Your proclamation
promised me free liberty
Im tired of bein the victim
of shame
Theyre throwinme in a
clas with a bad name
I cant believe this is the
land from which I came
The government dont
wanna see, but if
Roosevelt was livin he
wouldt let this be, no,no

Skinhead, deadhead
Everybody gone bad
Situation, specultaion
Everybody litigarion
Beat me, bash me
You can never trash me
Hit me, kick me
You can never get me

All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us

Some things in life they
just dont wanna see

But if Martin Luther was
livin, he wouldnt let
this be no, no
Skinhead, deadhead
Everybodys gone bad
Situation Segregarion
Everybody allegation

In the suite an the news
Everybody dogfood
kick me Hike me
Dont you wrong or
right me

All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us

All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us

All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us
All I wann say is that
They dont really care
about us

[Serge Litehead]

blindly believe those in power - that will get you far, because it's true - they're looking after your best interests </irony>
divide people to fight each other, blame each other, instead of focusing on bettering the country, wtg!

lost case :-/

[PornoStar69]

David Rockefeller in Dublin is peacefully confronted by various sovereigns

WACEire confront David Rockefeller in Dublin as the Trilateral Commissions annual meeting gets under way at the four seasons Hotel.This meeting just like the Bilderberg & CFR gets no mainstream media coverage.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=nZh0FDS8p6I

WHO imposes GLOBAL taxation on internet activity and financial transactions

World Health Organization Moving Ahead on Billions in Internet and Other Taxes

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/05...est=latestnews


''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''I feel so overwhelmed, every day I am seeing things deteriorate rapidly. This article rings true with what Celente said on friday's show, they will move to silence free speech on the internet. I see all these things as a prelude to WWIII they need to make sure their fraud is not exposed. They need to shut down the news so we do not see that the rest of the world is falling apart. This also looks like an indicator to me that something really big is coming'''''''''''''''''''''

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by holograph

blindly believe those in power - that will get you far, because it's true - they're looking after your best interests </irony>
divide people to fight each other, blame each other, instead of focusing on bettering the country, wtg!

lost case :-/

it's not an either or proposition eh. Just because i believe we landed on the moon does not mean i eat government cheese.


seriously.

[Serge Litehead]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

it's not an either or proposition eh. Just because i believe we landed on the moon does not mean i eat government cheese.


seriously.

seriously, other than OP no one said a word in this thread about moon landing before you). if i doubt actions of our government it doesn't mean i believe in ufo's and other tales by default

[Alky]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

it's not an either or proposition eh. Just because i believe we landed on the moon does not mean i eat government cheese.


seriously.

but if i doubt the government 1 time it means im a conspiracy theorist? make sense.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by holograph

seriously, other than OP no one said a word in this thread about moon landing before you). if i doubt actions of our government it doesn't mean i believe in ufo's and other tales by default

well, the op is the op- original post. and the moon landing is easily a top 3 conspiracy, it was an example to illustrate the point. and not one person has mentioned UFOs except for you, also, when did UFOs become a conspiracy, that's a new one.

deflect and misdirect, it's a classic conspiracy theorist tactic.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Alky

but if i doubt the government 1 time it means im a conspiracy theorist? make sense.

how you conclude that from my statement is beyond comprehension.

[Serge Litehead]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

well, the op is the op- original post. and the moon landing is easily a top 3 conspiracy, it was an example to illustrate the point. and not one person has mentioned UFOs except for you, also, when did UFOs become a conspiracy, that's a new one.

deflect and misdirect, it's a classic conspiracy theorist tactic.

whatever, if you think its logical to put all conspiracies (along with some doubters) under one umbrella, i'm fine being the lost case

if i doubt 9/11 does not mean i doubt moon landing by default. i mentioned UFOs only because tin foil fashion came from those crowd IF i'm not mistaken ;)

[Dirty Dane]

Whoever did 9/11, it was conspiracy. It was not an accident.

[Caligari]

this is a lame thread but here goes.

you look at "conspiracies" by gathering data which either turn out to be a)facts or b)non-facts

"3. The problem of induction, which leads us to formulate general rules on the basis of insufficient information;"

well no shit sherlock! talk about stating the obvious. sounds like another group of "researchers" with a nice grant.

btw, everyone knows that Stanley Kubrick filmed the fake moon landing.

[Alky]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

how you conclude that from my statement is beyond comprehension.

It was more of a summarization of all your posts. As soon as anyone posts that the gov could have helped plan something... they are labeled a conspiracy theorist.

But you being the all knowing know that we in fact landed on the moon. But that doesn't mean you "eat government cheese" as you said. I wish I had your 20/20 vision into the past. If someone doubts the moon landing... it make's them crazy in your eyes though.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by holograph

whatever, if you think its logical to put all conspiracies (along with some doubters) under one umbrella, i'm fine being the lost case

if i doubt 9/11 does not mean i doubt moon landing by default. i mentioned UFOs only because tin foil fashion came from those crowd IF i'm not mistaken ;)

again, where did i do that? the original topic did that, you are better served to address the poster or whomever actually wrote the content of the 1st post.

i simply stated that the typical conspiracy theorist would not be able to understand a single word in that post and i still believe that. not one of you has addressed the topic, instead choosing to get sidetracked and deflect, it's classic. that's cool but try and realize pointing your finger at me is simply more proof of that.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Alky

It was more of a summarization of all your posts. As soon as anyone posts that the gov could have helped plan something... they are labeled a conspiracy theorist.

But you being the all knowing know that we in fact landed on the moon. But that doesn't mean you "eat government cheese" as you said. I wish I had your 20/20 vision into the past. If someone doubts the moon landing... it make's them crazy in your eyes though.

wow, you glean this from my posts at gfy. that just shows that you have zero idea what my view is on the government.

moreover, my dad was one of those engineers who slaved over a fucking slide rule to get us to the moon, and i have the utmost respect for the accomplishment.

[Serge Litehead]

dyna_mo, what do you want me to say about OP? yes its true, but similar can be said in opposing, that assuming all conspiracy theorists are loony mofos that some how it invalidates all doubts? or magically makes everything official to be true?
i was simply replying in the flow of discussion I didn't say you said this or that. don't take it personally

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by holograph

dyna_mo, what do you want me to say about OP? yes its true, but similar can be said in opposing, that assuming all conspiracy theorists are loony mofos that some how it invalidates all doubts? or magically makes everything official to be true?
i was simply replying in the flow of discussion I didn't say you said this or that. don't take it personally

i'm not taking anything personally, i wouldn't know you if i was standing in front of you at the grocery store.

you concluding i believe all conspiracy theorist are loony mofos really says more about your view than mine. hell, i was just thinking the other day it would be fun to hang out with mayabong and shoot the shit.

[Serge Litehead]

dude you conclude too much i'm talking about what was said in original post in the flow of the discussion the way i see it.. where the fuck you get an idea i concluded anything about you? take it easy )

[Dollarmansteve]

Originally Posted by Dirty Dane

Whoever did 9/11, it was conspiracy. It was not an accident.

[dyna mo]

i'm now thinking maybe i should conclude all conspiracy theorists are loony mofos.

[PornstarXS]

all verbal diarrhea. don't trust anyone. question everything. government and religion don't want you to think or reason. a friend told me once "sometimes you gotta be a little bit crazy to be a lotta smart". time for imagination land

[mayabong]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

i'm not taking anything personally, i wouldn't know you if i was standing in front of you at the grocery store.

you concluding i believe all conspiracy theorist are loony mofos really says more about your view than mine. hell, i was just thinking the other day it would be fun to hang out with mayabong and shoot the shit.

From David Rockafeller's Memoir Pg. 405

"For more than a century, ideological extremists at either end of the political spectrum have seized upon well-publicized incidents to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as "internationalists" and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure - one world, if you will. If that's the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it" -David Rockefeller

[Serge Litehead]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

i'm now thinking maybe i should conclude all conspiracy theorists are loony mofos.

see You doing it not I
sorry if replying to your messages somehow got you an idea I assumed shit about you -if you thing that - you are dead wrong, and I apologize for confusing you, i was replying to you but it obvious I was on topic just from my point of view, not saying what you think or assume

[mayabong]

Originally Posted by PornstarXS

all verbal diarrhea. don't trust anyone. question everything. government and religion don't want you to think or reason. a friend told me once "sometimes you gotta be a little bit crazy to be a lotta smart". time for imagination land

Well said

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by holograph

see You doing it not I
sorry if replying to your messages somehow got you an idea I assumed shit about you -if you thing that - you are dead wrong, and I apologize for confusing you, i was replying to you but it obvious I was on topic just from my point of view, not saying what you think or assume

i appreciate the clarification. you did start that post by addressing me, therefore i could only conclude you were,,,....addressing me.

[Dollarmansteve]

Originally Posted by PornstarXS

all verbal diarrhea. don't trust anyone. question everything. government and religion don't want you to think or reason. a friend told me once "sometimes you gotta be a little bit crazy to be a lotta smart". time for imagination land

Simply being prolific at thought doesn't mean it's well-directed or even productive.

Just like some people shouldn't be allowed to have pointy objects, some people shouldn't spend too much time with their own mind.

[mayabong]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

i'm not taking anything personally, i wouldn't know you if i was standing in front of you at the grocery store.

you concluding i believe all conspiracy theorist are loony mofos really says more about your view than mine. hell, i was just thinking the other day it would be fun to hang out with mayabong and shoot the shit.

Am I the mother of all "conspiracy theorists" or something? haha

[dyna mo]

Critical thinking involves determining the meaning and significance of what is observed or expressed, or, concerning a given inference or argument, determining whether there is adequate justification to accept the conclusion as true.

Hence, Fisher & Scriven define critical thinking as "skilled, active, interpretation and evaluation of observations, communications, information, and argumentation."

Moore & Parker define it more naturally as the careful, deliberate determination of whether one should accept, reject, or suspend judgment about a claim and the degree of confidence with which one accepts or rejects it.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by mayabong

Am I the mother of all "conspiracy theorists" or something? haha

well, like i am seeing in this thread that some think i am the poster boy for the gfy anti-conspiracy crowd, i do figure you as the gfy poster boy for the conspiracy crowd.

[Serge Litehead]

Originally Posted by Dollarmansteve

Simply being prolific at thought doesn't mean it's well-directed or even productive.

Just like some people shouldn't be allowed to have pointy objects, some people shouldn't spend too much time with their own mind.

stay away from thinking!!! it is dangerous for you!!!!!!!

[mayabong]

Originally Posted by Dollarmansteve

Simply being prolific at thought doesn't mean it's well-directed or even productive.

Just like some people shouldn't be allowed to have pointy objects, some people shouldn't spend too much time with their own mind.

Yes time is alot better spent studying the psychology of a "conspiracy theorist", than time studying the actual arguements that the "conspiracy theorists" bring up.

[Dollarmansteve]

Originally Posted by mayabong

Yes time is alot better spent studying the psychology of a "conspiracy theorist", than time studying the actual arguements that the "conspiracy theorists" bring up.

I know you're trying to be sarcastic.. but you're right - there is a lot more social value in understanding how average people think and behave than in analyzing the excruciating minutiae of what is actually said and thought. How many times can one have the same insane conversation over and over and over?

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by mayabong

Yes time is alot better spent studying the psychology of a "conspiracy theorist", than time studying the actual arguements that the "conspiracy theorists" bring up.

worse is the conspiracy theorist's assumption that the opposing group does NOT question authority/government.

[fatfoo]

I agree that it's hard to find the cause of the problem. Sometimes you may think the cause of the problem is one thing, but it is actually the other thing. There can be many different factors or causes to a problem.

[CyberHustler]

I don't believe everything anybody says... whether it be my government, conspiracy theorists, school teachers, or my damn mom. I need proof.

[mayabong]

Originally Posted by Dollarmansteve

I know you're trying to be sarcastic.. but you're right - there is a lot more social value in understanding how average people think and behave than in analyzing the excruciating minutiae of what is actually said and thought. How many times can one have the same insane conversation over and over and over?

I think the psychology of people who constantly attack "conspiracy theorists" to be much more interesting.

For the most part, it NEVER involves debating the evidence, and usually just involves name calling or some medical psychological problem (as you listed). This is just as bad as calling someone a kook or nutjob (fox news tactics).

I've been called every name in the book on here.

It comes down to fear. I have friends and relatives that don't want to research things (especially 9/11) cause they wouldn't be able to handle it if the actual "conspiracy theory" was true. So its easier and safer to discredit the character of people. I don't see that working anymore though, maybe back in the old days.

"In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot."

Mark Twain

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by mayabong

I think the psychology of people who constantly attack "conspiracy theorists" to be much more interesting.

For the most part, it NEVER involves debating the evidence, and usually just involves name calling or some medical psychological problem (as you listed). This is just as bad as calling someone a kook or nutjob (fox news tactics).

I've been called every name in the book on here.

It comes down to fear. I have friends and relatives that don't want to research things (especially 9/11) cause they wouldn't be able to handle it if the actual "conspiracy theory" was true. So its easier and safer to discredit the character of people.

"In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot."

Mark Twain

this isn't entirely accurate, especially from my perspective. i've asked more than one 9/11 truther around here to discuss how much nano-thermite it would take to bring down the towers and the reply is ALWAYS a deflection. every single time.


hell, i'll try it again, simply because i would LOVE to debate this.

how much nano-thermite would it take to bring down the towers and bldg 7?

[MediaGuy]

Good read.

Since you believe one bullet can inflict multiple wounds and remain intact and three buildings can fall the same way under three different conditions for the first time in industrial history on the same day, perhaps you can use those criteria on your own perceptions... ?

:D

[mayabong]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

this isn't entirely accurate, especially from my perspective. i've asked more than one 9/11 truther around here to discuss how much nano-thermite it would take to bring down the towers and the reply is ALWAYS a deflection. every single time.


hell, i'll try it again, simply because i would LOVE to debate this.

how much nano-thermite would it take to bring down the towers and bldg 7?

It does not matter how much it takes, I don't know (i've seen your copy and pasted math equasion). The truth is that it was found. The common reaction to the fact that it was found is that these scientists, (like Stephen Jones) are kooks and probably share one of the mental disorders listed above. This is about as far as this converation goes.

The simple question to ask from any attack of any kind, is who benifits.. and thats usually the ones who did it.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by mayabong

It does not matter how much it takes, I don't know (i've seen your copy and pasted math equasion). The truth is that it was found. The common reaction to the fact that it was found is that these scientists, (like Stephen Jones) are kooks and probably share one of the mental disorders listed above. This is about as far as this converation goes.

The simple question to ask from any attack of any kind, is who benifits.. and thats usually the ones who did it.

you act like a c&p from an expert is not a valid way of highlighting the issue and somehow discredits the fact of the matter yet you c&p/youtube shit all the time to qualify your position.

can't have it both ways, turnabout is fair play, amigo.

nice deflection too.